Colonial connections shape football success to this day

This is at the expense of former colonies, which often cannot offer the same career and income opportunities, the University of Zurich (UZH) announced on Wednesday.

For the study, the research team from UZH and the University of Konstanz simulated the 2026 FIFA World Cup almost 1,500 times using the video game "Football Manager 2026".

They analyzed 49 national players who have family roots in former colonies but now play for the national teams of England, France, Portugal, Spain, Belgium or the Netherlands.

The scientists compared three scenarios: The players continue to play for their current national teams as before, they are removed from the squads or they play for their families' countries of origin. The researchers then examined the effects on the course of the tournament.

According to the results, many formerly colonized countries would perform significantly better if these players played for their families' countries of origin. Nigeria, for example, would win the World Cup title in around four percent of the simulations. Suriname would also significantly increase its chances of success.

France in particular would benefit

At the same time, the prospects of several top European teams would decrease. According to the study, the effect is particularly clear in the case of France. Under the current conditions, the French national team won 34.5% of the simulated World Cups. If players with family roots in former colonies were to play for their countries of origin instead, this probability would be almost halved.

Other nations could also benefit from the shifts. The study is currently available as a pre-publication on the open access server Open Science Framework and has not yet been published in a scientific journal.