Precious metal After record: the table is set for the next good year for gold
Almost no other investment performed as strongly as gold in 2025. Investors were able to make gains of over 60 percent. Shortly before the turn of the year, the price of gold hit another record high. The ingredients for 2026 suggest another feast.
22.12.2025, 09:28
SDA
Amuse-bouche: Uncertainty drives investors to safe havens
One of the most important price drivers for the number one precious metal is and remains global uncertainty. This includes US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which is still difficult to assess, as well as numerous geopolitical conflicts, above all the war in Ukraine.
In such times, gold is the safe haven par excellence for hedging portfolios and preserving value. The handmade tailor-made suit serves as a comparison over the centuries. In ancient Rome, an ounce of gold would buy you a fine tunic, and even today you can still buy an elegant suit in the City of London.
Entrée: Central banks exchange dollars for gold
Central banks hold reserves. And as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, it has long been the reserve currency par excellence. Recently, however, there has been a growing trend, especially among central banks in emerging countries: the decoupling from the superiority of the dollar. Gold serves as a substitute.
Accordingly, central banks around the world have been net buyers of gold since 2022, storing more than 1,000 tons annually, according to VanEck experts. This is set to continue in 2025, with around 700 tons already in storage at the end of October, according to gold producer Heraeus. This is a major support for the gold price.
For China in particular, turning away from the dollar is part of the strategy and the current purchases could even be significantly higher than the official figures, suspects Arthur Jurus, Investment Director at the private bank Oddo BHF Suisse.
However, the central banks' gold reserves are unlikely to rise to immeasurable levels, Commerzbank concedes. After all, the reserves are intended to secure foreign trade and provide importers with sufficient foreign currency so that they can pay for their goods. This is hardly possible with gold.
Plat Principal: Falling interest rates
It's a simple calculation. Lower interest rates equal higher gold prices. Because low real interest rates make gold, which in itself is interest-free, more attractive. And interest rates are likely to fall further in 2026, at least in the USA.
The new Fed Chairman will play a decisive role here. The most likely successor to Jerome Powell is Kevin Hassett. He is a loyal follower of Trump and therefore a guarantor of the interest rate cuts that the US President has repeatedly and loudly called for. Until Powell leaves office in May, however, calm could initially return on the interest rate front.
Dessert: Midterm year
IG Markets provides another, albeit less fundamental, reason. Because there are midterm elections in the US - and a so-called "midterm" year is statistically good for gold, explains chief market analyst Christian Henke.
In these years, volatility increases, equities are less in demand and investors seek out safe havens. All of this plays into the yellow precious metal's hands.
Petit fours: prices of up to 5000 dollars conceivable
So how lavish will the gold buffet actually be in 2026? At Heraeus Precious Metals, Head of Trading Henrik Marx expects a range of between 3,500 and 5,000 dollars per troy ounce. Other experts also see further price rises after a certain breather in the somewhat heated rally. Oddo BHF's estimates range between 4500 dollars and Deutsche Bank's 4950 dollars.
At the same time, many experts are leaving a back door open. If, for example, the war in Ukraine comes to an end or other events cause the desire for security to wane, a sharp correction in gold cannot be ruled out.
