Wholesale trade AI boom and tariffs: global trade shows surprisingly strong growth
According to an analysis by the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade in goods increased surprisingly significantly in the first half of 2025. The reasons for this include high imports into the USA, where many companies wanted to stock up before the tariff increases.
07.10.2025, 15:48
SDA
In addition, global trade in everything needed in the field of artificial intelligence has increased significantly: Semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment. This is according to the WTO's global trade forecast presented on Tuesday.
WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala speaks of the biggest trade disruptions in 80 years in view of the US tariff policy. Nevertheless, three-quarters of world trade continues to follow the negotiated rules and other countries, with a few exceptions, have not reacted with retaliatory measures. The system has therefore proved its worth, she says.
Of course, unilateral action like that of the USA is undesirable. She is analyzing what the WTO can do to avoid this. The organization must become faster, more agile and more relevant in today's world. The members were working flat out on reforms.
The WTO has now raised its trade in goods forecast for 2025 as a whole due to the strong first half of the year (plus 4.9 percent volume growth compared to the same period last year). In April, it was still forecasting minus 0.2% growth due to the threat of US tariffs, but is now forecasting 2.4% growth.
However, it has lowered its forecast for 2026: from plus 2.5% to 0.5% growth, partly because many businesses have been brought forward due to the threat of US tariffs.
For North America, the WTO has revised its April forecast for goods exports in 2025 from minus 12.6 percent to just minus 3.1 percent, and for Europe from 1.0 percent growth to 0.7 percent growth. In terms of imports, it is now forecasting minus 4.9 percent for the USA (April: minus 9.6 percent) and 2.4 percent growth for Europe (April: 1.9 percent).
