Despite tariff shock and fluctuations Analysts confident again - Swiss economy recovers despite Trump tariffs
The economic outlook for Switzerland brightens at the turn of the year: Despite Trump tariffs and global uncertainty, analysts expect a moderate recovery according to the UBS-CFA survey - even in terms of long-term growth.
23.12.2025, 11:12
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- Despite a slight decline in the UBS CFA Indicator in December, analysts are cautiously optimistic about the Swiss economy over the next six months.
- The recovery following the "tariff shock" in summer 2025 and the improved outlook for the eurozone and the US are boosting confidence, and experts also expect growth to return in the long term.
- A clear majority expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro and US dollar - a first since the survey began in 2007.
The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming year is cautiously optimistic. This is the conclusion of the analysts and economists surveyed by the major bank UBS regarding their assessment of the Swiss economy over the next six months.
The so-called UBS CFA indicator fell by 6.0 points to 6.2 points in December. However, it ended the year in positive territory, which suggests cautious optimism, the major bank UBS announced on Tuesday. It conducts the survey with the CFA Society Switzerland every month.
Index crashes due to tariffs
The tariff hammer seems to have been dealt with. As a reminder: In September (-46.4) and August (-53.8), the index plummeted due to the tariff shock on August 1, when Trump introduced an increase in the punitive tariff for Switzerland to 39 percent.
The cautious optimism is also reflected in the assessment of the current economic situation. While just 2.4% of respondents rated the economic situation as "good" in November, this figure is now around a fifth.
Expectations regarding economic development in the eurozone and the USA also brightened in December. In the eurozone, a majority now expects an improvement in the next six months. Although the outlook for the US economy remains gloomy, it is significantly less pessimistic than in November.
Long-term expectations have recovered
The long-term economic outlook also shows that sentiment has improved. After the experts surveyed in September had expected weaker economic development against the backdrop of the tariff hike, the point forecast for growth in five years is currently at its highest level since the end of 2024.
The analysts' assessment of the further development of the Swiss franc is also interesting. For the first time since the introduction of the corresponding questions in December 2007, none of the respondents expect the franc to depreciate against the euro or the US dollar in the next six months.
On the contrary, around 47% of analysts expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro and almost 70% against the US dollar over the same period. This corresponds to an increase of 5.3 and 8.6 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month.
48 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part in the current December survey. It took place between December 11 and 17.
