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Rising prices for mineral fertilizers are putting pressure on farmers worldwide.
dpa
In addition to oil and gas, a large proportion of the world's fertilizer production is normally transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries are already experiencing bottlenecks due to the closure. Experts expect food prices to rise sharply.
Farmers all over the world are already feeling the consequences of the war in the Persian Gulf in a very tangible way. The fact that they have to pay more for fuel is a minor problem for most of them. But because Tehran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is so important for shipping, in response to the attacks by Israel and the USA, there is no longer enough fertilizer. As a result, harvests are likely to be lower in many places this year. In developing countries in particular, this could cause existential hardship for many people.
The poorest farmers in the northern hemisphere are dependent on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region - and the shortage comes just as the planting season is about to begin, says Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme. "In the worst case scenario, this will lead to lower yields and crop failures in the upcoming season. In the best-case scenario, higher production costs will be reflected in food prices next year."
According to Baldev Singh, a 55-year-old rice farmer from the Indian state of Punjab, most small farmers in the Asian country may not survive if the government does not subsidize fertilizers in June, when demand usually peaks. "At the moment, we are waiting and hoping," he says.
Before the war began, around a fifth of global oil supplies and almost a third of the fertilizer trade were transported through the strait leading to the Persian Gulf, which has been largely blocked since the end of February. The important fertilizer components nitrogen and phosphorus are particularly affected. According to Chris Lawson from the London-based consultancy CRU Group, the conflict has slowed down around 30 per cent of global supplies of urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer for increasing agricultural yields.
Some countries are already facing critical shortages, says Raj Patel, an economist specializing in food at the University of Texas. One example is Ethiopia, which obtains more than 90 percent of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf region - via the port in Djibouti on the Gulf of Aden, i.e. via a route where there were already major problems before the Iran war began. "The planting season is now," says Patel. "The fertilizer is not there."
The situation is also serious when it comes to phosphate, which is important for promoting root growth. Saudi Arabia produces around a fifth of this fertilizer, and the region also accounts for more than 40 per cent of global exports of sulphur, which is a by-product of refining oil and gas, says Lawson.
Even if the war were to end soon, producers in the Gulf region would first need clear security guarantees before they could resume deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, says Owen Gooch, an analyst from the London-based market research company Argus Consulting Services. And it is almost certain that insurance costs will rise.
Fertilizers are usually applied immediately before or during planting. So even if deliveries were to restart soon, it could already be too late in some regions - including in Europe. "Our crops need the nitrogen now - the sooner the better," says agricultural engineer Dirk Peters, who runs a farm near Berlin. In many parts of Asia, an important planting season begins in the coming months.
Although fertilizer prices are currently still below the highs seen after the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, grain prices were also higher back then, which helped farmers to absorb the costs, says Joseph Glauber from the International Food Policy Research Institute. Because of the lower grain prices, profit margins are now lower. As a result, many farmers would either have to switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or simply use less fertilizer and accept lower yields. This in turn will be reflected in higher prices for consumers.
In East Africa, many farmers currently have a window of about a week after a period of heavy rainfall in which they can prepare their fields and apply fertilizer in dry weather, says Stephen Muchiri, a Kenyan maize farmer and also head of the Eastern African Farmers Federation, which represents around 25 million small farmers. Even very short delays in the use of fertilizer could reduce maize yields by around four percent in a season, says expert Patel. This has been shown in research work in Zambia.
Governments can try to alleviate the situation in their own countries through subsidies, by promoting domestic production or through export controls. According to the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), India, for example, has budgeted 12.7 billion dollars (around 11 billion euros) for urea subsidies alone this year. However, this means that less money is available for long-term investments in agriculture.
Meanwhile, the promotion of domestic urea production in India has led to greater dependence on gas imports, says IEEFA expert Purva Jain. Excessive use of urea has also damaged the soil in some places. Less dependence on fertilizer imports could protect farmers and consumers from energy price fluctuations and climate shocks, says Oliver Oliveros from the Agroecology Coalition, an organization that campaigns for more sustainable agriculture. "This could be a turning point."
29.03.2026, 17:49
