Banks At UBS, figures are becoming a minor matter in view of the capital issue
The big bank UBS is likely to have had a solid fourth quarter in 2025. However, the progress of the CS integration and the discussion about stricter capital requirements are of greater interest.
02.02.2026, 16:40
SDA
According to analysts, UBS is likely to present a significant increase in adjusted pre-tax profit for the final quarter of 2025 on Wednesday. This is also because the previous year's basis - i.e. the fourth quarter of 2024 - was relatively weak.
A good performance in investment banking by the US banks, which have already presented figures, bodes well for UBS. The signals for wealth management from overseas are also positive. Experts expect asset growth in Asia to provide a tailwind.
No rapprochement
But all this is overshadowed by the capital discussion. In particular, the Swiss government's demand that foreign subsidiaries be backed by 100 percent equity is causing a stir among bank management, and a rapprochement between the two sides is not in sight.
In December, a group of conservative members of parliament presented a compromise proposal that still provides for foreign subsidiaries to be fully backed by equity. However, UBS should be able to offset up to 50 percent of AT1 bonds.
However, Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter recently rejected this compromise in an interview with "Finanz und Wirtschaft". She also contradicted UBS, saying that the Federal Council's proposal was "by no means extreme". The big bank, on the other hand, continues to insist on its position.
Share buybacks uncertain
The discussion surrounding capitalization is also likely to affect UBS's return of capital to its shareholders. As announced, the bank acquired shares worth 3 billion US dollars in 2025.
From 2026, share buybacks should actually return to the level before the CS takeover (5.6 billion). However, the decisive factor here is what lies ahead for the big bank in terms of stricter capital requirements.
Some analysts therefore expect the bank to present a two-part guidance on Wednesday, as it did in 2025: one for the first half of 2026 and one for the second half of 2026.
Most of the job cuts are imminent
Meanwhile, the integration of the acquired Credit Suisse has apparently gone quite smoothly so far. The most important part - the transfer of client accounts in Switzerland - was already more than two-thirds complete after the third quarter. The target of cost savings of 10 billion dollars by the end of 2025 compared to 2022 was already achieved a quarter earlier.
UBS has completed a large part of the integration, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said at the World Economic Forum in Davos around two weeks ago. "Now we need to focus on completing this work." Costs amounting to around 3 billion dollars, for example due to the restructuring of IT or the implementation of the announced job cuts, still need to be taken off the balance sheet.
According to media reports, the workforce is to be reduced from around 115,000 to around 80,000 employees as part of the integration. At the end of September, the number of UBS employees - measured in full-time equivalents - stood at 104,427.
