Economy BAK Economics does not expect economic recovery until 2027
The forecasting institute BAK Economics continues to expect only subdued economic development in the year 2026. 2027 should then improve - but not for all sectors.
22.01.2026, 11:25
SDA
Specifically, the institute continues to expect growth in GDP adjusted for sporting events of 0.9% in 2026. According to the experts, 1.5 percent should then be possible in 2027, as stated in a webinar on Thursday.
According to the economists, the various sectors of the economy will develop very unevenly. The greatest impetus will come from the pharmaceutical industry. The experts are forecasting growth of 5.1 and 7.0 percent for 2026 and 2027 respectively.
Mechanical engineering continues to decline
For other areas of industry, however, the outlook is bleak according to the BAK forecast. Declining growth rates of 3.6 and 1.8 percent are predicted for mechanical engineering, for example. The metal industry is also likely to experience a downturn.
The outlook for the watch industry is somewhat better (+0.9/+1.1%). Even greater impetus is also expected from the construction industry, which is likely to grow by a good 2% in 2026. "The pipeline in the sector is very well filled," it said.
Forecasts subject to Trump reservations
However, all forecasts should be treated with caution, it was emphasized. The reason for this is the US president's policies: "Trump's behavior is disruptive and cannot be predicted," said BAK Economics chief economist Claude Maurer.
For the moment, very high tariffs are off the table. "But the trade balance problem will not disappear," said Maurer. In other words: New tariff attacks cannot be ruled out, he said.
