Natural science Drought in Iran caused by climate change, according to analysis
According to a study, the extreme drought in Iran and other parts of West Asia, which has persisted for five years, would not have occurred in this form without climate change. According to the World Weather Attribution initiative, the current drought is the worst documented in Iran.
21.11.2025, 06:29
SDA
The warming caused by fossil fuels is largely responsible for putting the region in a state of "exceptional drought", writes the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative in London. This also includes Iraq and Syria. The initiative is investigating the impact of global warming on extreme weather events worldwide.
The study updates a WWA analysis from 2023. The now extended data up to June 2025 shows an even stronger correlation than before: a five-year dry spell like the one since 2020 is not uncommon in today's warming climate, but would only be expected two to three times per century in a world without climate change and would also be significantly less extreme. According to the analysis, structural problems such as inadequate and overburdened water management, overused pastures and expanded agriculture are also exacerbating the water crisis in Iran and other countries in the region.
Warnings of growing damage and increasing risks
"A single dry year would not have triggered a crisis on its own, but in Iran climate change is piling drought upon drought," said the study's lead author, Mariam Zachariah from Imperial College London. "Our study shows that climate change is making these droughts longer and harsher, giving countries in the region less time to recover. Without human-induced climate change, a drought of this length and severity would simply not occur in its current form."
If the world does not "commit fairly and quickly to phasing out fossil fuels at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, water shortages will increase, more people worldwide will be forced to leave their homes and the costs will be felt far beyond the region," said her colleague Friederike Otto. "Every additional year of unchecked climate change brings more losses, more deaths, destroyed livelihoods, lower yields and high costs for public health," warned the co-founder of the WWA.
Attribution studies determine the probability of a weather event today and the probability in a world without man-made climate change. This can be used to determine the extent to which global warming has contributed to an event.
