Electric cars could catch on quickly in Africa

The question is not whether mobility will increase, but how, ETH Zurich wrote in a press release on Tuesday.

Thanks to solar power, electric cars could become profitable in many African countries much sooner than previously expected. Researchers from ETH Zurich, the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) and the African universities Makerere University, University of Port Harcourt and Stellenbosch University report this in the journal "Nature Energy".

According to the study, they could be cheaper than combustion engines before 2040. Previous models assumed that vehicles with combustion engines would dominate until the middle of the century.

The prerequisite is that electric cars are charged with solar power from their own small system, independent of often unreliable or non-existent power grids.

For their analysis, the researchers compared the total cost of ownership and greenhouse gas emissions over the entire life cycle. They examined three types of drive: combustion engines with fossil fuels, combustion engines with synthetic fuels and electric cars that are charged via a solar system that is independent of the power grid.

The study covered 52 African countries, six different vehicle segments - from two-wheelers to minibuses - and the time horizons 2025, 2030 and 2040.

The results show that electric cars and two-wheelers charged with independent solar systems will be economically competitive as early as 2030. By 2040, they are expected to be the cheaper option in all vehicle classes examined and in most countries.

High financing costs

The study identifies the high financing costs as the biggest obstacle to the rapid electrification of passenger transportation in Africa. In many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are considered risky, as the ETH explains in the press release. This affects electric vehicles in particular, as they have higher initial costs.

The authors of the study derive policy recommendations from this. Instead of relying on subsidies for vehicle purchases, governments and financial institutions should take measures to minimize the risks involved in financing, they demanded in the study. These include guarantees or mixed financing. This would reduce the cost of capital and directly improve the competitiveness of e-cars.