The economy Economists lower their expectations for economic growth in 2026
Economic experts expect economic development in Switzerland to be weaker in 2026 than three months ago. They have also lowered their expectations for the current year, albeit only slightly.
23.06.2025, 11:07
SDA
The economists surveyed as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast now expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sports) to grow by an average of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026. The forecast for unadjusted GDP growth is 1.1 percent for this year and 1.6 percent for next year, as announced by the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) on Monday.
This means that the growth prospects for both years are estimated to be weaker than recently. In the March survey, the economists had still expected growth of 1.4% for 2025 after adjustment for sport and 1.2% unadjusted growth.
For 2026, their forecast was +1.6% for sports-adjusted GDP and +1.8% for unadjusted GDP.
The lower growth expectations for 2026 are mainly due to lower estimates for investments. The economists surveyed are still forecasting +1.6 percent for fixed asset investments in 2026, compared to +2.0 percent in March.
And for equipment investment, they still expect +1.6% (+2.1%) for the coming year. By contrast, expectations for construction investment are unchanged (+1.7%).
Lower inflation rate expected
With regard to inflation, respondents expect lower figures than in March. The expected inflation rate for the current year is still 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, while it has been adjusted to 0.6% for 2026 from 0.8% previously.
The outlook for the situation on the German labor market has also deteriorated further. The consensus value for the unemployment rate is now 2.9% for 2025 after 2.8% in the March survey and 3.0% (2.8%) for 2026.
The survey participants are also asked about their expectations for the corresponding values in 5 years' time. Here, too, economists have become somewhat more pessimistic about growth.
They now estimate adjusted growth of 1.5% (+1.6%) and unadjusted growth of 1.6% (+1.7%). The long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged at +1.0%, while those for the unemployment rate are also unchanged at 2.8%.
15 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from June 2 to June 18, 2025.
