Oceans send a warning signal El Niño returns - experts warn of droughts and floods
There are increasing signs that El Niño will return in the coming months. Experts are already warning of additional heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events around the globe.
02.06.2026, 09:08
02.06.2026, 10:07
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- According to the WMO, the probability of El Niño returning is now around 80 percent.
- The weather phenomenon can intensify droughts, floods and heatwaves.
- Climate researchers fear that global temperature records could fall again as a result.
It has been on the cards for months, and now it is practically a certainty: the unusually high sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific herald the regularly recurring weather phenomenon El Niño.
This is accompanied by concerns about more extreme weather with droughts, floods and a possible record-breaking global average temperature in the near future, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva.
"El Niño conditions are adding fuel to the fire of global warming," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video message. "The consequences will be even more severe and spread even further."
Could become a strong El Niño event
The probability of El Niño starting between June and August is now 80 percent and around 90 percent for it to last until at least November. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The last time the weather phenomenon, which occurs naturally every two to seven years, appeared was in 2023/24, which was one of the five strongest El Niños since records began in 1950, according to the WMO. This contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record since industrialization (1850-1900) in terms of global average temperature.
El Niño can exacerbate climate change impacts
An El Niño exacerbates the consequences of man-made climate change. The effects can be felt with droughts and floods in regions in the southern hemisphere in particular. The consequences for Europe are limited.
According to the WMO, the surface temperature on the Pacific coast of South America rose to the same level as in El Niño years between the end of April and mid-May. In addition, there was unusually warm water from lower altitudes, the temperature of which was six degrees above the long-term average in some places.
