Astronomy ESA sets risk of asteroid impact to almost zero
The risk of the asteroid "2024 YR4" hitting the Earth has fallen to almost zero. The European Space Agency ESA estimated the probability of an impact at 0.002 percent on Monday.
24.02.2025, 15:05
SDA
The risk could be evaluated more precisely based on new observations, ESA wrote on a blog about the asteroid. In its first risk assessment in January, the space agency emphasized that the calculated impact probability of a distant asteroid often drops to zero after further observations.
Last week, the ESA's Coordination Center for Near-Earth Objects estimated the probability of "2024 YR4" hitting the Earth at 2.8 percent. The US space agency Nasa even calculated a risk of over three percent. Nasa now also estimates the impact risk to be negligible at 0.0039%.
Regionally severe damage in the event of an impact
The asteroid was first sighted on December 27, 2024. Should "2024 YR4" actually hit the Earth, the European Space Agency Esa estimates that it could explode in the atmosphere and cause damage with a pressure wave and heat. It could also cause a crater with a diameter of more than one kilometer. According to Esa, an asteroid of this size hits the earth on average every few thousand years.
According to Esa, the asteroid should initially move away from the Earth in the next few months on its elongated orbit around the sun and disappear from view. It can then be observed again in 2028, with the asteroid coming closest to Earth on December 22, 2032.
