Expert: Blockade in the Middle East could trigger a food crisis

In many countries around the world, farmers will soon start planting seeds. Nitrogen fertilizers such as urea are used for around half of global food production. This is produced from natural gas.

However, due to the war in the Middle East, the world's most important trade route for fertilizers is now blocked - namely the Strait of Hormuz. According to Rabobank analysts, slightly less than a third of the world's nitrogen fertilizer exports pass through this strait. The major exporters include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iran.

Certain other routes in the Persian Gulf, North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean are also restricted. Container ships now have to divert via the Cape of Good Hope, which delays deliveries by up to two weeks.

This also increases transportation costs, as experts from Coface write. "It is only a matter of time before global food prices rise sharply," warned Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya on Monday.

Global food crisis possible

"The blockade could trigger a global food crisis," said Charlotte Pavageau from the Zurich-based Biovision Foundation in an interview with the news agency AWP. Between 10 and 20 million tons of urea are transported via the Strait of Hormuz every year. The foundation specializes in sustainable agriculture.

"The countries that import the fertilizer usually have very low stocks," Pavageau continued. In addition, the products are imported shortly before the planting season. Every day of delay can therefore reduce yields, especially for the important staple foods of maize, wheat and rice.

According to the expert, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico are particularly affected by the current shortages. These countries are heavily dependent on commercial agriculture, which is very fertilizer-intensive. If yields fall there, Switzerland will also feel the effects: "Our food system is completely interconnected," says Pavageau.

Although Switzerland itself obtains most of its fertilizer from neighbouring European countries, much of its food and animal feed comes from abroad.

Emerging countries suffer in particular

The higher prices are a particular burden on emerging countries, which have little money available for imports. "They have to reduce fertilizer consumption, which reduces yields," said Pavageau. Food prices are rising and, in the worst case, food shortages are occurring.

The Biovision Foundation is therefore calling for countries to become less dependent on large chemical producers. "There needs to be a shift towards more ecological cultivation that uses fewer chemicals," said Pavageau. The possibilities are there, but it will take time and investment.