The economy Experts anticipate a further deterioration in the economic outlook

According to financial analysts and economists, the economic situation in Switzerland has deteriorated further. In fact, they rated the outlook for the Swiss economy slightly worse in September than a month ago.

At that time, the index compiled for the UBS survey had slipped into negative territory for the first time in some time. The UBS CFA indicator, which summarizes the expectations of financial analysts and economists regarding the economy over the next six months, fell further in September compared to the previous month to -8.8 points. In August, the index slipped into negative territory for the first time since the beginning of the year, falling to -3.4 points.

The September decline is the fourth in a row and reflects the growing pessimism of survey participants regarding the growth prospects of the Swiss economy, according to the report. Expectations have worsened, particularly with regard to economic developments in the USA, the eurozone and China.

Interest rates expected to fall

Interest rate expectations have also fallen. The proportion of analysts who expect interest rates in Switzerland, the eurozone and the USA to fall in the short and long term has increased. It should be noted that the survey was conducted at a time when both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve have already lowered their key interest rates. On Thursday (tomorrow), it will be the turn of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

With regard to the development of the Swiss franc, survey participants were increasingly expecting an appreciation against the euro and the US dollar compared to August. The risk of a euro depreciation appears to be slightly higher, as more participants expected the franc to appreciate against the euro than against the dollar, according to the press release.

Despite weaker global growth expectations, participants remain relatively optimistic about the performance of equities. Over the next six months, more respondents expect share prices to rise than fall in Switzerland, the eurozone and the USA.

Stable long-term outlook

In the long term, i.e. for the next three to five years, there has been little change in the expectations of analysts and economists. In terms of GDP growth, the downside risks have only been raised slightly, they said. The probability that the long-term growth of the Swiss economy will be around 0 to 1 percent annually has increased. Fewer respondents still expect growth of 2 percent or more.

The survey was conducted between September 12 and 19 and 34 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part.