Climate Experts: Oceans could be heading for new heat records
In 2023 and 2024, the surface temperature of the oceans reached extreme values. The world's oceans could be heading for new heat records.
14.05.2026, 04:44
SDA
"The development is reminiscent of the situation in spring 2023, when global ocean temperatures began to exceed the highs of previous years by ever greater margins," Helge Gössling, climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur. "Currently, temperatures are already noticeably above the 2023 values and on a par with the previous records of 2024, which were associated with the El Niño event of 2023/24."
According to data from the "Climate Reanalyzer" platform, the global mean surface temperature in March and April already exceeded record values from 2024 on several days. The University of Maine platform has been recording daily values globally and for individual regions for around four decades, based on satellite measurements, among other things.
Influence of El Niño has hardly played a role so far
Similar to spring 2023, the incipient natural climate phenomenon El Niño is unlikely to have a clear impact on global temperatures at present, explained Gössling. However, the spatial patterns differ from those of three years ago: The North Pacific is significantly more affected, while the North Atlantic shows no unusual warming anomalies. "That was different in 2023, when weak trade winds in the North Atlantic led to a lack of evaporative cooling there." The Pacific off the coast of California and Mexico is currently particularly hot.
It should also be noted that global warming has continued over the past three years. "It is absolutely predictable that the oceans as a whole will remain above the long-term average," emphasized Gössling. The current development shows that the records of 2023/24 were not an absolute outlier followed by a supposed pause in warming. "Rather, we are on a steady warming path for the foreseeable future."
Total temperature down to the depths is rising continuously
Mojib Latif from the Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel pointed out that, in view of the fluctuations in the surface temperature of the oceans, we should not forget that the overall temperature of the oceans is constantly reaching record levels in the course of the climate crisis. For decades, the oceans have acted as a huge heat buffer: they absorb around 90 percent of the heat that accumulates in the atmosphere due to the increase in greenhouse gases, as Latif explained.
This will probably continue to be the case and will help to buffer atmospheric temperatures in the short term, explained the climate researcher. In the long term, however, some of the heat will be released again. This lag of the gigantic ocean heat reservoir is a physical reason why global warming of more than two degrees can hardly be avoided. Added to this is the socio-economic inertia: global greenhouse gas emissions cannot be suddenly reduced to zero, but only over decades. Moreover, the long-lived gases already pumped into the atmosphere would continue to have an effect even then.
Increasingly severe effects of El Niño
How rising ocean temperatures influence the frequency and intensity of El Niño events is still unclear, explained Latif. What is clear, however, is that El Niño impacts will be stronger in an increasingly warmer world. "There is more energy in the system, which makes storms and rainfall stronger on average." This means more suffering, damage and problems, and not just in the regions directly affected by El Niño. "At the end of the day, it has a global economic impact, for example through lost harvests."
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the signs of an imminent strong El Niño are becoming ever stronger. The weather phenomenon occurs approximately every two to seven years and lasts about a year. During these phases, more heat from the Pacific Ocean enters the atmosphere regionally, resulting in altered weather patterns. For example, there can be heavy rainfall in parts of Africa or South America, but also droughts in Australia or Indonesia, for example.
According to Gössling, it is not yet possible to say for certain whether a strong El Niño event is currently developing. "In the summer, we should be able to see more clearly whether an event will actually occur that will set new global records."
