Politics Fateful election in France brings more people to the polls

The first round of the early parliamentary elections in France has entered the home straight with a surprisingly high voter turnout. By 5 p.m., 59.39 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots, according to the Paris Interior Ministry. This is almost 20 percentage points more than at the same time in the previous general election two years ago.

The interim figure is already above the overall voter turnout for 2022 of 47.51%. Polling stations are still open until 20:00. Projections on the outcome of the election are also expected then.

The security forces in France have prepared for the possibility of unrest in some of the country's major cities on the evening of the first round of voting.

Change of power possible in Paris

The approximately 49.3 million eligible voters can vote on whether the centrist camp of head of state Emmanuel Macron will continue to have a majority in the National Assembly and thus form the government. If not, there will be a change of power in Paris and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will have to step down.

Macron had dissolved the National Assembly following the clear defeat of his Liberals in the European elections and the resounding victory of the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) and announced new elections to the French parliamentary chamber in two rounds. The second and decisive election round is on July 7. Macron's presidency is not at stake in the vote.

Polls show right-wing nationalists in the lead

Head of state Macron hopes to increase the relative majority of his centrist camp in the National Assembly in the vote. However, it is considered unlikely that he will succeed. Polls put Macron's forces in third place in the first round of voting on Sunday with 20 to 20.5 percent. The right-wing Rassemblement National was in first place with 36 to 36.5 percent, followed by the left-wing alliance with 29 percent.

Marine Le Pen's RN already thinks it has a chance of winning a majority in the parliamentary chamber and the post of prime minister. The new left-wing alliance of the Greens, Socialists, Communists and Left Party is also aiming for a change of government.

Run-off elections on July 7 decisive in many places

It is uncertain exactly what the parliament will look like after the election. Very few of the 577 seats will be allocated in the first round. In many constituencies, the run-off elections in the second round will be decisive. While just five seats were won in the first round of the regular parliamentary elections two years ago, according to the polling institute Ipsos, 80 to 90 seats could be won directly this time. The reason for this would be the expected higher voter turnout and a stronger concentration on the three political alliances.

Even if it is difficult to make statements about the second round, forecasts assume that the right-wing nationalists could become the strongest force in the National Assembly. Whether it could also be enough for an absolute majority is unclear - also because local alliances are often formed between the two election rounds, which influence the outcome. While the left could remain stable, Macron's center camp is likely to lose seats.

A victory for the right would also have international consequences

Such an outcome would have serious consequences. The National Assembly is one of two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can topple the government with a vote of no confidence. Should a bloc other than Macron's centrist camp win an absolute majority, Macron would de facto be forced to appoint a prime minister from its ranks. There would then be a so-called cohabitation. Macron's power would shrink significantly and the prime minister would become more important.

The right-wing nationalists are explicitly aiming to win the election and assume government responsibility. RN party leader Jordan Bardella is set to become prime minister. In such a scenario, Macron would have difficulties pushing through his policies internationally. The election is therefore also being followed with interest in Brussels and Berlin.