Federal economists expect only a moderate upswing

For 2025, the federal government's group of experts is now only forecasting growth in real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for the effects of sport) of 1.4 percent, as announced by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Tuesday. Experts had previously assumed 1.5 percent.

The federal economists have also become somewhat more cautious for 2026. They now expect growth of 1.6 percent - in December they were still forecasting growth of 1.7 percent.

These figures exclude major sporting events such as the European Football Championships and the Olympic Games. Every two years, these bring a shower of money into the country because the headquarters of Fifa, Uefa and the International Olympic Committee are in Switzerland. However, this significantly distorts the actual economic development.

Below-average growth

This means that the Swiss economy will grow at a below-average rate for another two years, according to Seco's current forecasts. And the uncertainty in connection with international economic and trade policy is extraordinarily high. Currently, the economic downside risks clearly dominate the upside potential.

With regard to inflation, Seco continues to expect low values. Prices are only likely to rise by 0.3% in the current year (unchanged forecast). The inflation forecast for 2026 has been lowered slightly from 0.7% to 0.6%.