Climate Further increase in global CO2 emissions in 2025
The hoped-for turnaround in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has failed to materialize: A report for the year 2025 assumes that global emissions of the greenhouse gas will continue to rise, probably by 1.1 percent compared to the previous year.
13.11.2025, 02:57
SDA
If emissions continue at this level, the remaining CO2 budget to meet the 1.5-degree target set out in the Paris Agreement will be used up before 2030. A large international research group led by Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter presents its Global Carbon Budget 2025 report in the journal "Earth System Science Data".
According to the report, global CO2 emissions will rise to 38.1 billion tons this year. In 2024, the figure was 37.8 billion tons. There was growth in all fossil fuels: Coal (+0.8 percent), crude oil (+1.0 percent) and natural gas (+1.3 percent). According to the report, emissions in the USA are likely to increase by 1.9% compared to the previous year, in India by 1.4% and in China and the European Union by 0.4% each.
"In view of the further increase in CO2 emissions, it is no longer realistic to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius," Friedlingstein is quoted as saying in a statement from his university. He and his team of around 100 research institutions had compiled extensive data material and used it to calculate the global development in computer models.
The report also shows encouraging trends
According to the report, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is likely to rise to 425.7 ppm (parts per million). In 2024, it had reached a record level of 423.9 ppm, as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced a month ago.
However, the researchers also see positive trends that prove, for example, that climate protection does not weaken the economy: "35 countries were able to reduce their emissions while at the same time achieving economic growth," says co-author Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, referring to the period from 2015 to 2024. That is around twice as many countries as ten years previously.
These countries include numerous European states, as well as Australia, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan. However, Le Quéré emphasizes that this progress is not enough to sustainably reduce global emissions in the face of rising energy demand.
Deforestation has decreased significantly
Another positive trend is that land use change, particularly deforestation, has been greatly reduced by environmental policy measures, the report notes. "Deforestation rates in the Amazon region have declined and reached their lowest level since 2014 this season," says Julia Pongratz from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, another co-author. However, the devastating fires in 2024 showed how vulnerable the ecosystem will remain if global warming is not limited, Pongratz warned.
On the other hand, an unfavorable trend affects the environmental systems that have so far absorbed large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, the so-called ocean and land sinks: Their absorption capacity is decreasing, mainly due to the effects of climate change. According to the scientists' calculations, a good 8 percent of the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere since 1960 is due to the fact that the land and ocean sinks are increasingly less able to absorb CO2. Between 2015 and 2024, the absorption capacity of ecosystems on land decreased by 25 percent and the absorption capacity of the oceans by 7.9 percent.
