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People are cutting through the barbed-wire fence as they try to reach the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from the northern Moroccan town of Fnideq. Photo: STR/AP/dpa
Keystone
Within hours, tens of thousands of people are pouring into the Spanish exclave in North Africa. Residents are barricading themselves in their homes. Others threaten and attack the new arrivals, who are often very young. At first, they wander aimlessly and half-naked through the streets—and return to Morocco shortly thereafter.
Meanwhile, the situation in the exclave has eased considerably. But the images of chaos are likely to continue to shape the political debate on migration in Europe for a long time to come. How did this happen? There is no clear answer yet—but there are plenty of theories.
There is unusual consensus in Spain on one point: According to nearly all observers, the unprecedented influx would hardly have been possible without the Moroccan authorities at least temporarily turning a blind eye. The border, which is normally heavily guarded, is considered so sensitive and controllable that, according to the newspaper “El País,” tens of thousands of people could not have crossed it without the “approval or cooperation” of officials in Rabat. The inaction of Moroccan security forces, documented in numerous videos, leaves “no doubt” about this.
In Morocco, too, some observers note that an incident like the one in Ceuta would only be possible if the authorities there tolerated it. This is because King Mohammed VI rules the country with an authoritarian hand and has massively expanded the security apparatus and digital surveillance using security cameras. Several migrants have independently told Spanish media that they were not stopped but were instead encouraged to cross the border.
But what interest could Rabat have had in the chaotic scenes? It is clear that, despite the close economic ties between the two countries, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has become a thorn in Rabat’s side. During a visit last week, he had strengthened relations with Algeria—Morocco’s neighbor and greatest enemy in the region. In addition to the dispute between the two African neighbors over the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, Morocco also considers the two Spanish exclaves to be “occupied Moroccan cities.”
Discontent in Rabat may also have been sparked by the recent approval of a bill by the Spanish Parliament’s Justice Committee. The bill is intended to make it easier for many Sahrawis—the indigenous inhabitants of Western Sahara—and their descendants to obtain Spanish citizenship. Spanish media speculate that Morocco views this as a provocation in part because members of the Polisario Front—an independence movement supported by Algeria—could face harsher persecution or criminal prosecution if they hold an EU passport. The Polisario Front consists largely of Sahrawis.
It is possible that Rabat wanted to send a signal to Madrid by easing border controls. While there is no evidence to support this, the suspicion is not unfounded: In 2021, Spain most recently accused Morocco of using migration and people as leverage in the dispute over Western Sahara. At that time, Madrid had admitted the leader of the Algerian-backed Polisario Front to a hospital. Shortly thereafter, more than 8,000 people arrived in Ceuta. Madrid called it “blackmail,” while Rabat countered: “Actions have consequences.”
Another theory regarding the current crisis is that Rabat wanted to show that its role as a border guard for Europe cannot be taken for granted. The country receives millions in EU funds for measures to curb migration.
The discussion also focuses on possible signals that Spain’s immigration policy may have sent. These include the legalization of irregular migrants already living in the country and a court ruling that makes it more difficult to turn back migrants who have entered by sea. Although the first measure does not apply to new arrivals, it is said that it may have raised false hopes among migrants.
Other speculations go even further. Spain has sharply criticized both Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip and the U.S. attacks on Iran, and has also resisted pressure from President Donald Trump to increase defense spending more quickly. Based on this, some observers speculate that Morocco may have acted in the interests of its close allies, the U.S. and Israel, to destabilize the left-wing government in Madrid while simultaneously fueling the migration and other debates in Europe.
An analyst sympathetic to Israel therefore bluntly called on Israel a few months ago to help Morocco “regain” Ceuta and Melilla in order to “punish” Spain. However, there is no credible evidence of U.S. or Israeli involvement in the events in Ceuta.
The Moroccan government has not commented on the incidents, even on Saturday. A political party with ties to the royal court has merely stated that a “national dialogue” on issues affecting young people is necessary. Some accuse the government of neglecting young people. Author Abdelhamid Bajouki writes that, for those affected, “the sea is less frightening than home.”
Morocco's economy is growing at a rate not seen in years, yet unemployment remains high, especially among young people. According to a study by the International Labor Organization (ILO), one in three people between the ages of 15 and 29 is neither employed nor enrolled in college or vocational training. Women are particularly hard hit.
In urban centers such as Casablanca, Rabat, or Fès, as well as in rural areas, people often have no prospects—they dream of a life in Europe. Many set their sights on Spain and France because of their geographical proximity and historical ties to those countries. Both EU countries are home to large Moroccan communities.
Smugglers are exploiting the situation. Although the government has been trying for years to curb human trafficking, However, criminal networks continue to operate, smuggling migrants from sub-Saharan Africa into Europe. In 2025, Moroccan authorities reported 73,000 irregular entries into the country, primarily from sub-Saharan Africa.
Social media also appears to have played an important role in the Ceuta crisis. Numerous migrants report that they became aware of the allegedly open border through videos and news posts on platforms such as TikTok. There, hope quickly spread that accommodations would be available in Ceuta and that they could continue their journey to the Spanish mainland.
Once there, however, the euphoria quickly gave way to disillusionment. “We were told we’d get housing and a visa for Algeciras. But it was all a lie,” 18-year-old Mohamed told an *El País* reporter. A young mother complained, “I didn’t even get any milk for my baby.” It’s hardly surprising that most of the 50,000 to 60,000 arrivals quickly returned “voluntarily” to Morocco, even under pressure from Spanish security forces.
01.08.2026, 16:03
