They are talking about war 3 gloomy predictions for the future of Nato and the West

Philipp Dahm

21.2.2025

Donald Trump is toeing Vladimir Putin's line - and sacrificing Ukraine in the process. This heralds a turning point, say three experts from the USA, the UK and Germany: they warn of a new, bigger war.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • What are the consequences of Donald Trump's U-turn on Ukraine policy? An American, a Brit and a German try to make a prediction.
  • For the American ex-general Barry McCaffrey, NATO is at an end because the USA can no longer be relied upon. The probability of war has increased.
  • The British ex-general Richard Shirreff says that Pax Americana is at an end. A war with Russia within the next three to five years is therefore now "much, much more likely".
  • German military historian and YouTuber Torsten Heinrich has always emphasized how pro-Western and pro-American he is. "But since tonight, I've been thinking about how to decouple from the US."

Preamble

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, says Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Following Donald Trump's U-turn on Ukraine policy, Copenhagen is reacting decisively.

Denmark is investing an additional 6.3 billion in its military. "Does the world look unsettled? Yes. Is there reason to believe that it will soon be over? No," says Frederiksen, explaining this step. Her country will thus invest 3 percent of its GDP in defense.

This sentence illustrates what the time has come: "If we can't get the best equipment, we'll buy the next best thing. Only one thing counts now: speed."

US ex-general: Nato "over" - war possible

Barry McCaffrey is a decorated soldier: the former US Army general received three Purple Hearts during his active career, was honored with two Silver Stars and has the Distinguished Service Cross on his chest twice. So the 82-year-old knows a thing or two about warfare.

The American ex-general Barry McCaffrey believes that NATO is finished.
The American ex-general Barry McCaffrey believes that NATO is finished.
KEYSTONE

McCaffrey now paints a bleak picture of the future of the West: he sees Donald Trump's 180-degree turnaround in Ukraine policy as the beginning of the end for Nato. "My view, unfortunately, is that the damage is done," "Raw Story" quotes the ex-military man. "It's irreversible now."

The concept of deterrence no longer works, McCaffrey explains: "There is not the slightest rational argument among the European powers to trust the United States' commitment to NATO and Article Five." No one believes that Trump would defend the Baltic states in the event of a Russian invasion.

Confusing "psychobabble". Donald Trump (left) and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in July 2018.
Confusing "psychobabble". Donald Trump (left) and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in July 2018.
KEYSTONE

Nato had kept the peace for "four generations": "I think that's over," McCaffrey says, burying the alliance. Countries such as Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states and Poland, which are closer to Russia, "are under pressure", the American knows. In view of the possible loss of US backing, Europe should be glad that the British and French have nuclear weapons.

"Otherwise, the nuclear security that the USA provides to our allies in Europe would also be gone," says McCaffrey. He also sees Trump's Greenland ambitions in this context: these would only make sense if Trump were to consider withdrawing from NATO, which operates a base on the island that could then be lost to the USA.

"The US government has made a series of psychobabble announcements that have confused the global leadership," summarizes the ex-general. "In Europe, they think we're gone for the duration of the Trump administration." And what does that mean for the world? "Well, I think it increases the likelihood of war."

British ex-commander: war likely

Isn't the American McCaffrey perhaps a little too pessimistic? What does a Briton who was once the deputy supreme commander of the Allies in Europe have to say? "I think," former General Richard Shirreff tells Times Radio, "the events of the last week have made the likelihood of war with Russia within the next three to five years much, much more likely."

By adopting Putin's rhetoric, Trump has "put himself in bed with an accused war criminal", the 69-year-old said. "It looks like [Trump] is sacrificing Ukraine." If Europe and Canada don't step in, it will be difficult for Kiev, he predicts. He advises his government to increase defense spending to at least 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Lieutenant General Richard Shirreff during a troop visit to Afghanistan in 2011: The Briton criticizes the fact that Trump talks at Putin's mouth as "extraordinarily naive".
Lieutenant General Richard Shirreff during a troop visit to Afghanistan in 2011: The Briton criticizes the fact that Trump talks at Putin's mouth as "extraordinarily naive".
Royal Army/Hernandez Fonte

"They couldn't be happier in Moscow," he continues. "Russia will not give up its plan to destroy Ukraine." The annexation of large territories and the establishment of a puppet government is the Kremlin's minimum goal. "Trump is creating the conditions for this to happen." Shirreff recalls the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which Trump arranged with the Taliban without consulting the government - with the result that the latter was driven out of Kabul.

Trump is right to call for Europe to get more involved, but his behavior undermines NATO Article 5, as an attack on one member is an attack on the entire alliance. "The world is a different place this week than it was last week. Pax Americana is finished. It's a different world."

A "coalition of the willing" must now be formed within NATO. This must not only consider a strategy for Ukraine, but also how it can replace US capacities over time. This would require "a fundamental change in mentality".

The fact that Europe can only provide peacekeeping troops if Moscow agrees to this is a problem. Putin would first have to get a "bloody nose" in Ukraine before he would give in, says the ex-military man. Should he do so, European units would have to have "real military muscle" - because "Russia will probably come back at some point".

German YouTuber: decouple from America

Torsten Heinrich is not an ex-commander, but a military historian. The German describes himself as a "salon strategist": on his YouTube channels, he either shows his cats Siegfried, Etzel and Hjördis - or he discusses - always calmly and objectively - what is happening on the front in Ukraine. Heinrich produces his videos from Panama.

"I'm not a leftist," says Heinrich about himself. His audience often sends him messages during his streams that are signed with "very patriotic greetings". But the emigrant is not a right-winger: he supports Ukraine and is always clearly pro-Western.

So how does this German react to Trump's behavior? This is "a complete breach of culture": "He's destroying something," says Heinrich, horrified. "I don't really want to accept it yet." With regard to the new president, he assures: "I've tried to see the positives."

But that's over now: "I emphasize in all the streams how pro-American I am," says Heinrich, "but since tonight I've been thinking about how to decouple from the USA."

When asked whether Trump can be compared to British Foreign Secretary Neville Chamberlain, who thought he could dissuade Adolf Hitler from war with the Munich Agreement of 1938, the military historian has an existing answer. He says that this comparison is not a valid one, because the West at least received the promise from Nazi Germany that Berlin would not attack its neighbors.

Because Putin does not want to give such guarantees, Heinrich draws on another historical fall from grace: what Putin and Trump are doing is more reminiscent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, aka the Hitler-Stalin Pact, in which the Nazis and the Soviets agreed to divide up Eastern Europe in 1939.