"Ukraine is becoming a laboratory" 3 points that explain Kiev's recent successes in the war

Vladimir Putin's spring offensive has come to nothing. Instead, the ball is now in the opponent's court: for the first time in three years, Kiev is seizing the initiative again. 3 aspects are inspiring the Ukrainian armed forces.

"Russia staggers on the battlefield", headlines the Economist: for the first time in three years, the initiative is swinging back to the side of the Ukrainians. Vladimir Putin's spring offensive has failed, it says, also referring to Moscow's recent territorial losses.

"The Russian armed forces have not yet achieved any significant successes in their spring/summer 2026 offensive," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) agrees. The Kremlin "is increasingly suffering from recruitment and personnel problems, including deficits in relation to the number of casualties".

Since the winter, Kiev's troops have liberated 4,000 square kilometers, writes ISW: "Ukrainian forces advanced towards Kupyansk, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and the western Zaporizhzhya oblast. The Russian forces advanced towards Sumy and Pokrovsk."

Why is Volodymyr Zelenskyi's army advancing? Here are 3 important aspects on the topic:

Kiev has a new tool in its toolbox that has fatal consequences for the Russian armed forces: A drone called Hornet from US manufacturer Swift Beat is mixing up the hinterland of the front line. The kamikaze aircraft is said to have a range of 100 to 150 kilometers.

In this area, depots, roads and vehicles are barely protected. A video from the 1st Azov Corps of the Ukrainian National Guard shows the damage caused by the Hornets, which are connected to Starlink, are relatively resistant to jammers and are supposed to be supported by an AI.

A Russian truck driver on X tells us what this feels like for those affected. "Turn down the music and put the pedal to the metal," he advises his colleagues. They shouldn't drive or stop at night - "especially if you're transporting dangerous goods".

"It can be very expensive if you stop to sleep for an hour these days," warns the driver. He has driven from Donetsk to Melitopol: "Burnt-out vehicles lie on the side of the road after drone attacks," he reports.

With their greater range, Kiev's drones can attack a logistics center like the city of Donetsk. But now the connection between Russia and the occupied territories in southern Ukraine is also within striking distance, the war correspondent for the Russian newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" writes angrily on Telegram.

"Drones of the Ukrainian armed forces have begun to operate in the 'land corridor' that leads through the liberated territories to Crimea. The drones are controlled by Starlink," writes Dmitry Steshin. "Between 150 and 300 of the Musk satellites could be in the zone of the special military operation and over Ukrainian territory."

Kiev must be deprived of Starlink access: "Otherwise the logistics will collapse in the coming months. If the scumbags do something with the Crimean bridge, the peninsula will be, if not cut off, then blocked. Then there will be another attempt [by Ukraine] to land in Crimea," says Steshin.

Kiev's rapid progress in military technology has led to several collaborations with countries from the West and the Persian Gulf. The USA now also wants to benefit from this, reports "Bloomberg": According to the report, the Pentagon is interested in drones as well as electronic warfare products.

A deal has been negotiated that will involve the transfer of technology to the USA. Now the decision-makers "at the highest political level" still have to approve the deal. At the same time, Ukrainian manufacturers are constantly presenting new innovations.

Sometimes it's about a drone that can be pulled high and far by balloon in order to have significantly more battery power for strikes even further inland. Sometimes it's about a drone that first fires unguided air-to-ground missiles at its target before finally launching itself at the enemy.

Kiev is not only researching new drones: With the Vyrivniuvach, national manufacturers are now producing their own glide bomb for the first time, which costs only a third as much as its American counterpart - see the video above. Ukraine is also making progress with long-range missiles: it is to help the European companies Destinus and Rheinmetall to build the RUTA Block 3 cruise missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers.

Kiev is also cooperating with a Western company on the digital battlefield: the US data analyst Palantir is working for the Ukrainian armed forces. This worries Belarusian journalist Alexander Zimovsky, who warns on Telegram that Palantir will "soon be a scary term for Russian children".

The AI-supported system collects data from a wide variety of sources and merges them: "A uniform picture of the battlefield is created in real time, enabling immediate decisions," writes Zimovsky. "Ukraine is becoming a laboratory for next-generation combat technologies and Palantir is becoming the core of a new model of data-driven warfare."

Ukrainian long-range drones are increasingly effective, according to the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council. One reason for this is "that the country is increasingly relying on medium-range strikes". The "medium range" refers to the zone between twenty and two hundred kilometers behind the front line.

"This intermediate area is of crucial importance for Russian military logistics and is also home to large quantities of air defense systems," it continues. Radar and air defense systems are hunted down, which in turn makes it easier for long-range drones to reach their targets.

It dawns on Russian soldier Dmitry Tinkov that his country's calculations are not working out in the face of ever-larger swarms of Ukrainian drones. A Leopard 2 tank costs between 11 and 32 million dollars, depending on the version. A drone costs 5,000 dollars. For one tank, Kiev gets 2200 to 6400 drones, he calculates.

Tinkov estimates the cost of one Pantsir air defense system missile on Telegram at [56,000 dollars]. One thousand missiles alone would cost [56.1 million dollars]. "What's my point?" asks the soldier: "One tank won't cause us 56.1 million dollars worth of damage. But 2200 to 6400 UAVs drones will cause damage per se. Even if they are all shot down."

Against this backdrop, Kiev is continuing its strategic airstrikes. On May 17 and May 20, drones hit the greater Moscow area, apparently missing refineries. On May 19, the Ukrainians were more successful when the Yaroslavl refinery was attacked for the third time in two weeks.

The country's third-largest refinery in Ryazan was still burning at the time after drones attacked it on May 15. And the fourth-largest refinery, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod oblast, was hit on May 20.

Robert Brovdi, alias "Madyar", commands the Ukrainian drone fleet: the major says his men attacked ten Russian refineries in the first 20 days of May. Six of them had to cease operations for the time being as a result.

... what Ukraine is doing is not witchcraft. Russia is also developing new weapons, learning quickly from its opponents and adapting.

The fact that Kiev is doing so well right now is a snapshot. The war is also an arms race: An innovation is followed by an innovation that reacts to it. One example: Ukraine has protected over 1700 kilometers of roads with nets against drones in order to thwart Russian attacks.

The Russians respond by deploying a Molniya-2 drone that destroys the nets with a flammable liquid.

Even if Ukraine seems to have the advantage at the moment, there is no telling how long the war will last. Putin still has a few jokers he can play - such as mobilization, which is unpopular, however.

Or Belarus could join the war: Volodymyr Selenskyj warns on May 20 that a new front could be opened. "We have discussed what is currently happening in the direction of Belarus and the Russian region of Bryansk", says the president "From there, the Russians are thinking about scenarios for further attacks on Ukraine".