Trump exposes weaknesses 4 points that are causing Scholz and Macron to lose sleep

Donald Trump's withdrawal of love has set alarm bells ringing in Europe: With his withdrawal, the US president is exposing problems that are home-made and are worrying Scholz, Macron and their European partners.

Europe under pressure: When the heads of state and government of Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark meet in Paris, the five most pressing problems will not be solved - at least not in the short term.

GoodbyePax americana: the USA wants to withdraw from Europe. This is also reflected in the latest Ukraine proposals from Washington: US troops are explicitly not being deployed to secure a possible peace, Washington emphasizes.

There is a "new sheriff in town", threatens US Vice President J.D. Vance at the security conference in Munich. "You can't assume that America's presence [in Europe] will last forever," warns Defense Minister Pete Hegseth in Poland. His country is no longer the "main guarantor" of security on the continent, he adds.

This attitude makes the Eastern Europeans in particular sweat. They are relying on the deterrent effect of the world power: no one in Moscow will mess with a determined US president. But what if Vladimir Putin believes that Washington won't take a nuclear risk just because little Estonia has been invaded?

The feared scenario looks like this: The Russian army separates the Baltic states from the rest of NATO at the Suwalki Gap and overruns them. After the annexation, Russia warns that it will counter Nato attacks on its new territory with nuclear weapons. However, the Kremlin would only dare to make such an advance if it could count on the passivity of the White House. Trump's withdrawal therefore makes the Balts particularly nervous.

Greenland lust, tariffs, arms spending: Now that Trump is attacking Europe head-on, of all times, the continent is without political leadership. French President Emmanuel Macron has been weakened by election defeats and government chaos and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's days are numbered ahead of the upcoming election Sunday in Germany.

The British Prime Minister is leading the way and is open to British peacekeeping troops in Ukraine even before the Paris meeting. On the other hand, it is difficult for London to assume leadership in Europe when its country has explicitly turned its back on the EU.

The peace dividend after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 is turning out to be an expensive mistake in 2025: the European armies have shrunk too much. At least when it comes to guaranteeing national defense, fulfilling international obligations and deploying a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

The number of personnel in the German armed forces alone has fallen from a good 486,000 in 1989 to a good 215,000 in 2025. A good 181,000 of these are active soldiers. Great Britain has a good 184,000 active soldiers, France has 200,000. 165,000 people serve in Italy and just under 72,000 in Spain.

By comparison, Russia has 1.32 million active soldiers.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is calling for the Ukraine peacekeeping force to be 100,000 to 150,000 strong. But even if it is only 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers, as the media speculate, it would be a challenge for the Europeans to raise the troops.

Vladimir Putin has invested 13.1 trillion roubles in his military in 2024, which corresponds to 130 billion francs. That is 40 percent more than in the previous year. However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that the figure must be adjusted for aspects such as purchasing power: The London-based think tank estimates the total at just under 416 billion francs.

Europe, on the other hand, has only invested just under 412 billion, the report continues. That would be 11.7 percent more than in the previous year and even 50 percent more compared to 2014, but less than the Kremlin is spending overall. And while Russia has switched to a war economy, Europe has to buy defense funds abroad.

"Many European procurement contracts are awarded to suppliers from third countries," complains a spokesperson for the lobby organization ASD on "Euronews"."This trend must be reversed. We need to spend more money - in Europe."

In the end, increasing Europe's military - both in terms of personnel and material - will be expensive. However, politicians are still finding it difficult to openly address this with their own electorate.