Shortly after winning the election 6 points are already making Merz sweat
Germany has voted - now CDU Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has to form a coalition. Much points to an alliance with the Social Democrats (SPD).
24.02.2025, 07:51
24.02.2025, 11:03
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- The CDU/CSU with top candidate Friedrich Merz wins the Bundestag election.
- This gives Merz the mandate to form a government.
- These are the possible coalitions.
The election is over. But it is far from certain that a government will now be agreed. Friedrich Merz wants to be ready by Easter. These are the sticking points in the upcoming negotiations.
Migration policy
Major conflicts are to be expected in migration policy. The CDU and CSU also want to turn back asylum seekers at Germany's borders. The SPD considers this to be incompatible with European law. The CDU/CSU also intends to suspend family reunification for those entitled to subsidiary protection.
There is currently a quota of 1000 visas per month for the relatives of people with this restricted protection status. The SPD wants to maintain this.
It is likely that stationary controls at land borders will continue for the time being. The SPD is likely to reject the CDU/CSU's demand that the Federal Government should campaign for the abolition of subsidiary protection at European level.
However, this raises the question of how likely it would be to agree on a corresponding resolution at EU level. Subsidiary protection applies if neither refugee protection nor asylum entitlement can be granted and there is a threat of serious harm in the country of origin. This has recently affected many asylum seekers from Syria.
In addition to the differences in content, there is also the question of the atmosphere in which the coalition negotiations are taking place. Merz was heavily criticized for accepting the votes of the AfD on motions and a draft law.
The SPD accused him of breaking his word and taboos and questioned his credibility.
Economic and tax policy
The parties agree on the goal: the economy must be stimulated. After two years of recession, only minimal growth is expected this year.
In view of the difficult economic situation in Germany, business associations and trade unions are pushing for a government to be formed quickly.
Lower energy prices, for example by reducing electricity prices, would be a major lever; a consensus seems possible here. However, there are major differences when it comes to tax policy. The CDU/CSU is in favor of billions in broad-based tax relief, including for companies.
The SPD wants a "Made in Germany" bonus, with which the state would take ten percent of the costs from companies investing in machinery or vehicles.
Budget
The SPD wants a reform of the debt brake enshrined in the German constitution in order to create more scope for investment, particularly in infrastructure. Union chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has at least not ruled out a reform.
One of the most important tasks of the new coalition will be the adoption of a federal budget for 2025, with billions of euros in gaps to be closed. The key issue is likely to be how much defense spending is to increase in the coming years and how this is to be financed.
Foreign and security policy
The CDU/CSU and SPD agree to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against the Russian aggressor. However, how additional billions in aid should be financed is controversial.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has so far insisted on using an exemption rule from the debt brake. Also controversial: Merz is open to the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to the Ukraine.
Scholz is strictly opposed to this because he fears that Germany will be drawn too deeply into the war. The SPD shares this course.
Negotiations between the USA and Russia could create a completely new dynamic in the Ukraine conflict, with far-reaching consequences for the European security architecture. Germany could also be faced with the decision to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.
Social policy
Difficult negotiations are also looming in social policy. The CDU/CSU wants to abolish the citizen's income introduced largely by the SPD and replace it with a new "basic income". The CDU and CSU argue that the citizen's income reduces the incentive to take up work.
The statutory minimum wage, which currently stands at 12.82 euros per hour, is also controversial. The SPD is calling for an increase to 15 euros. The CDU/CSU believes that wage setting must remain a matter for the social partners. The CDU and CSU reject a "political minimum wage".
Transport policy
The CDU/CSU has left open the future of the nationwide Germany ticket for local and regional transport. It is primarily a question of financing; the federal funds of 1.5 billion euros are only secured until the end of the year.
A central question is also what the future holds for the railroads. The CDU/CSU is aiming to restructure the federally owned company and separate operations from infrastructure. This is unlikely to be feasible, especially with the SPD.
