International A NATO summit in the shadow of Putin and Trump

When the real work begins for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the other heads of state and government this Wednesday after the big ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO, two people who are not even present will have a say in what happens. One is called Vladimir Putin and has given the Western defense alliance a second spring with his military aggression against Ukraine. The other is Donald Trump and stands for the uncertainty and worries that the alliance is facing despite its new importance due to the brutal war in the middle of Europe.

Would the defense alliance survive if Trump were to become US president again after a four-year break? And if not, what would the world look like afterwards?

There will be no answer to any of these questions at the NATO summit. What is certain, however, is that Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election in November have increased in recent days. Following the disastrous performance of his Democratic opponent Joe Biden in a TV debate at the end of the day a few days ago, Trump has risen in the polls. The Republican, who was president from 2017 to 2021, was able to extend his lead over Biden. If Biden cuts a poor figure at the summit, this could give Trump a further tailwind.

Negotiating with Russia over Ukraine's head

One reason for concern about Trump's possible re-election is Ukraine. During the US election campaign, the Republican repeatedly claimed that he could end the Russian war of aggression in 24 hours. However, it is clear that he does not want to help Ukraine win against Russia with additional military support.

The online portal "Politico" reported, citing people close to the Republican, that Trump is considering a kind of deal in which NATO commits to not expanding further eastwards. At the same time, he wants to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin about how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep. From the point of view of most European states, such an approach would be an outrageous and dangerous breach of taboo. Putin could then chalk up his war as a success and be tempted into further aggression.

Questioning the obligation to provide assistance

Further cause for concern for many is the experience with the Republican in his term of office from 2017 to 2021 and recent statements from the election campaign. During his first term in office, Trump repeatedly railed against what he saw as the under-spending on defense by European allies and at times even threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance. In the most recent election campaign, he repeated these accusations and portrayed the USA under Biden as a country that was being ripped off by European rip-off artists.

At the beginning of the year, Trump threatened NATO countries that did not meet their financial obligations that they would no longer be guaranteed American protection - and virtually encouraged Russia to do whatever it wanted with them. And in an interview, he warned that we must not forget that NATO is more important for Europe than for the USA, because there is an ocean, "a beautiful, big, beautiful ocean" between the USA and "some problems" in Europe.

All of this is problematic because, as a defense alliance, NATO relies on the principle of deterrence. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is relevant to this. It regulates the obligation to provide assistance within the alliance and states that an armed attack against one or more allies is regarded as an attack against all of them.

Nato wants to become Trump-proof

The current efforts to at least make support for Ukraine Trump-proof to a certain extent show just how great the nervousness is. In future, Nato wants to take over the international coordination of weapons deliveries and training for the Ukrainian armed forces - in case the Americans, who have performed this task to date, should reduce their involvement under Trump.

At the same time, the alliance is aware that it would be impossible to compensate for a total loss of the US as an alliance partner. According to current NATO figures, the United States will spend around 968 billion US dollars on defense this year, almost twice as much as the European allies and Canada combined.

Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is confident and points to the positive developments in recent years. "I expect the USA to remain a strong ally, regardless of the outcome of the US elections," he told the German Press Agency shortly before the summit. One reason is that NATO also makes the USA stronger and safer. In addition, there is strong bipartisan support for NATO in the US Congress and in the US public and European allies have done a lot recently. "Today, 23 allies are spending two percent of their gross domestic product on defense, compared to three percent in 2014 when we agreed to the two percent target," he said. "This shows that the U.S. is not carrying the burden alone."

SDA