Israel deploys troops A war with Hezbollah is becoming increasingly likely
For months, diplomats from all over the world have been warning of a conflagration in the Middle East. After the explosions in Lebanon and Syria this week, further escalation seems almost inevitable.
20.09.2024, 04:30
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for itself
- At least 37 people were killed by exploding communications equipment in Lebanon and Syria on September 17 and 18. Thousands were injured.
- A country does not carry out such an attack if it does not want to wage war, according to a retired brigadier general from Israel.
- A troop deployment on the border also suggests that Israel wants to attack Hezbollah.
- Israel's defense minister has heralded the beginning of a "new phase" of the war.
A war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah seems increasingly likely these days.
Israel's Defense Minister Joav Galant has announced a "new phase" of the war. In an attack in Lebanon this week, some of which also affected Syria, Israel apparently triggered the explosion of thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah - and the following day presumably the explosion of radios and other electronics.
According to current information, at least twelve people died in Tuesday's action and thousands were injured. On Wednesday, at least 20 people are said to have been killed and around 450 others injured. There is now talk of a total of 37 dead.
Hopes of resolving the conflict diplomatically are dwindling. Israel is making it increasingly clear that it wants to change the status quo in the north of the country, on the border with Lebanon. Israeli soldiers have been fighting with Hezbollah fighters there since shortly after the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip in October.
Signs of an expansion of the war
In recent days, Israel has deployed a considerable force to the northern border. Israeli government representatives have stepped up their rhetoric. And the country's security cabinet has declared the return of thousands of Israelis displaced by the fighting to their homes in the north to be an official war aim.
So there are clear signs that Israel intends to extend the war to Lebanon. Despite the almost daily battles between Israel and Hezbollah, both sides have so far avoided such an escalation. This no longer seems to be the case after September 17 and 18.
Such an approach - attacking thousands of people - would not be chosen on the assumption that it would not lead to war, said Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli brigadier general who heads the Israeli Defense and Security Forum, a group of former military commanders not known for restraint.
Israel moves 98th army division to the border
"Why didn't we do this for eleven months?" asks Avivi. "Because we weren't ready to go to war. What's happening now? Israel is ready for war," he said. With the fighting in Gaza slowing down, Israel has been rearming on the border with Lebanon.
This week, the powerful 98th Army Division, which has been involved in some of the fiercest fighting in Gaza, arrived there. It is believed to include thousands of soldiers, including paratrooper infantry units, artillery and elite commandos trained to operate behind enemy lines.
Their deployment was confirmed by a source with knowledge of the operation who wished to remain anonymous. The military also said it had held a series of exercises along the border this week. "The mission is clear," said Major General Ori Gordin, who heads the Israeli Northern Command. "We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible."
"New phase" of the war
The military movements were accompanied by intensified rhetoric from the country's leadership. On Wednesday evening, Galant announced the start of a "new phase" of the war, in which the focus is increasingly shifting to Hezbollah. "The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces."
The day before, the Israeli security cabinet had declared the return of the inhabitants expelled from the north to be a war objective. Following a meeting with security representatives on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed this plan.
According to a source, warnings from US envoy Amos Hochstein to Netanyahu that an intensification of the conflict with Hezbollah could make the return of Israeli civilians more difficult apparently did not bear fruit. Israeli media reported that the government had not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
"War is imminent"
Much, it seems, depends on Hezbollah's reaction to the latest developments. A speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected today, Thursday. However, public opinion on a tougher stance towards the militia is likely to give the Israeli government backing should there be a further escalation.
In a survey conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, at the end of August, 67 percent of Jewish respondents said Israel should step up its response to Hezbollah attacks.
"There is a lot of pressure from society to go to war and win," Avivi said. "Unless Hezbollah says tomorrow morning, 'Okay, we got the message. We're pulling out of southern Lebanon', war is imminent."
War would be devastating for both sides
However, it is almost a foregone conclusion that such a war would have devastating consequences for both sides. More than 500 people have already been killed in Israeli attacks in Lebanon since October 8, the day after the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel began, most of them Hezbollah fighters and allied groups.
However, more than 100 civilians were also killed. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians were killed in attacks from Lebanon.
Since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, the militia has expanded its capabilities. It now has an estimated 150,000 rockets, some of which are said to have guidance systems. Hezbollah's fleet of drones should not be underestimated either.
In the event of war, the militia could be capable of attacking targets throughout Israel, bringing everyday life to a standstill and forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee.
