Survey in Germany AfD is the strongest force in the "Barometer" for the first time
According to the ZDF "Politbarometer", the AfD is the strongest force in Germany for the first time. At the same time, satisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government has fallen to a record low - and the coalition would no longer have a mathematical majority.
17.04.2026, 10:07
17.04.2026, 10:35
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- According to the ZDF "Politbarometer", the AfD is ahead of the CDU/CSU for the first time - with 26% to 25%; other institutes also currently see the right-wing populists as the strongest force.
- The coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would no longer have a parliamentary majority if elections were held next Sunday.
- Satisfaction with the Merz government has fallen to a record low - only 27% are satisfied, 65% give Chancellor Merz poor marks.
According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, if the Bundestag - the German parliament - were to be elected next Sunday, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU and CSU) would only receive 25% (down 1 percentage point compared to the end of March). The AfD would remain unchanged at 26%.
The social democratic SPD - the CDU/CSU's coalition partner in Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government - would only reach 12% (minus 1) and thus fall to its lowest level in this survey. This would mean that the coalition would no longer have a parliamentary majority.
The Greens could expect 14% (minus 1), while the Left Party would increase to 11% (plus 1). The economically liberal FDP, which has not been shown individually in recent months due to a lack of sufficient mentions, would reach three percent. For the representative survey, 1,355 eligible voters were questioned from April 14 to 16.
YouGov sees even greater AfD lead
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is not the first institute to see the AfD ahead of the CDU/CSU. The right-wing populists are also the strongest force in the latest polls by YouGov, Insa and Forsa, although Insa and Forsa put them slightly ahead. The lead over the CDU/CSU is strongest with YouGov: in the Sunday poll, the AfD comes in at 27% (up 1 percentage point on the previous month), while the CDU/CSU slips by three percentage points to 23%.
Election polls are generally fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. As a matter of principle, surveys only reflect opinions at the time of the survey and are not forecasts of possible election outcomes.
Dissatisfaction with the government is growing
At the same time, satisfaction with the government and chancellor is falling to a record low in the ZDF "Politbarometer". After 34% at the end of March, only 27% of respondents are now satisfied overall with the government's work. 63 percent give it a poor report card. Only 18% still consider cooperation within the coalition to be good, while 73% see it as poor.
Dissatisfaction with the work of Merz (CDU) has also increased further. 65% rate his work as poor (end of March: 57%) and only 30% as good (March: 38%), including the majority of CDU/CSU supporters. Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), whose performance is rated as good by 29% and bad by 58%, and Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU), who is only rated as doing a good job by 19% (bad: 64%), also received a lot of criticism.
