A turning point in Germany AfD draws level with CDU/CSU in voter poll for the first time

For the first time since it was founded, the AfD has drawn level with the CDU/CSU in a nationwide poll. The new Sunday trend shows the CDU/CSU and AfD at 24 percent each - a historic low blow for Friedrich Merz.

The latest Insa Sunday trend marks a political turning point: for the first time in Germany's history, the right-wing populist AfD is on a par with the CDU/CSU - both parties have 24%.

While the CDU/CSU loses two percentage points, the AfD gains one point. Since the beginning of March, the CDU/CSU has thus lost six percentage points - a crash of historic proportions.

According to Insa head Hermann Binkert, this is the lowest fall ever recorded by the Union between the Bundestag election and the formation of a government. "A black-red government with Friedrich Merz at the helm would begin with a poll crisis," Binkert explained to "Bild". The reasons: Many voters see the CDU/CSU as too pliable in the ongoing coalition negotiations - especially towards the SPD.

The loss of trust is reflected in the figures: In the federal election in February, the CDU/CSU still came in at 28.6 percent - since then it has lost 4.6 points. Around one in six voters has turned away.

Shifts in other camps too

The AfD, on the other hand, is benefiting: With 24%, it reached a new poll record. Party leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel are likely to feel vindicated - even if an actual government alliance with the CDU/CSU remains out of the question. Friedrich Merz has categorically rejected cooperation with the AfD on several occasions.

There are also shifts in other camps: The SPD remains stable at 16%. The Greens are down slightly at 11%, as is the Left Party, which is back in double digits for the first time (+1 point). The FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) have each only managed 4% and are in danger of not making it into the Bundestag.

What does this mean for the formation of a government? If the vote were held today, a black-red coalition would only receive 40% - not enough for a majority. A three-party alliance with the Greens or the Left Party would be possible. Also mathematically possible, although politically ruled out: an alliance of the CDU/CSU and AfD with a combined 48%.

While many in the CDU/CSU are wondering how it could have come to this, others are already warning of a fundamental change in the party system. After all, the AfD is no longer a protest party - but a power option, at least on paper.