Bitter anniversary in 7 points After three years of war, Ukraine's fate remains open
Soldiers' funerals have become a bitter daily routine for Ukraine. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Russian missile and drone attacks have hit many Ukrainian cities. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Russia wants to enforce its maximum demands in Ukraine. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The Europeans are trying to find their own position in view of the rapid rapprochement between the USA and Russia. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Soldiers' funerals have become a bitter daily routine for Ukraine. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Russian missile and drone attacks have hit many Ukrainian cities. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Russia wants to enforce its maximum demands in Ukraine. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The Europeans are trying to find their own position in view of the rapid rapprochement between the USA and Russia. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Tens of thousands dead, ruined cities, devastated landscapes - Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2022. And what appears to be a possible peace looks bleak so far.
22.02.2025, 07:46
22.02.2025, 09:00
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- The situation is currently difficult for Ukraine: it is under heavy military pressure, is losing territory and is struggling with mobilization problems, while Russia is gaining the upper hand militarily.
- The social and economic situation in Ukraine remains stable despite high inflation and war damage, but the desire for negotiations is increasing.
- Under Trump, the USA is seeking a rapprochement with Russia, which could isolate Ukraine, while Europe is struggling over its security strategy and support for Kiev.
Three years after the start of the Russian war of aggression, the situation in Ukraine is more difficult than ever. February 24 marks the third anniversary of the start of the invasion, on which day in 2022 Russia's head of state Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade the neighboring country at dawn. Since then, the existence of Europe's second-largest country has been under threat. The continent's security architecture has begun to slip.
The USA was previously Ukraine's biggest supporter. However, under the new President Donald Trump, it is seeking a settlement with Russia and wants a swift end to the fighting. European countries are meeting in crisis mode: how should they help Ukraine and react to America's dwindling protection? Questions and answers on a bitter anniversary:
How many people have been killed in three years of war?
There are no exact figures, but the number of dead is in the tens of thousands and possibly even hundreds of thousands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently spoke of more than 46,000 soldiers killed. However, the internet project UA Losses has counted at least 65,500 names of dead Ukrainian soldiers based on public sources and online data alone. Tens of thousands are missing.
According to UN figures, the deaths of 12,600 Ukrainian civilians had been confirmed by the end of January. 29,200 had been injured. But tens of thousands of people are also missing, including victims of the Russian shelling of the port city of Mariupol at the beginning of the war.
On the Russian side, internet research has revealed at least 93,600 dead soldiers. The Russian service of the BBC gave a range between 159,500 and 223,500 dead soldiers. The Russian leadership has not officially released any figures. According to media reports, several hundred civilians have been killed in Russia's border areas with Ukraine.
What is the current military situation?
The Ukrainian army has been in retreat since fall 2023. It is under pressure, especially in the east in the Donetsk region. Another 400 square kilometers have been lost there since the beginning of 2025. Almost a fifth of Ukraine is under Russian control. Ukrainian troops have been in the Russian region of Kursk since August 2024. But this bridgehead is also shrinking.
The Ukrainians are struggling with the enemy's superior numbers of soldiers and technology as well as the glide bombs used by the Russian air force. Desertion and the sluggish mobilization further thinned the ranks of the defenders. Ukraine achieves success with advanced combat drones that attack industrial plants in the Russian rear. Russian warships hardly dare to attack from the sea in the Black Sea.
How is Ukraine living under the pressure of three years of war?
Three years of war have left deep scars on Ukrainian society. Many cities in the east and south have been severely devastated by Russian attacks. Foreign aid and loans of more than 39 billion euros a year are still flowing in and have so far prevented a collapse. Pensions and salaries are being paid on time. The army has stable funding. Agriculture continues to work despite all the problems. However, inflation unexpectedly shot up from five to twelve percent in 2024.
Far from the front, the problems are not visible at first glance. The stores are full, restaurants are open, petrol stations are working and traffic is dense. There are air alerts almost every night. But stores, cafés and bars have armed themselves with generators against the power cuts following Russian attacks. For larger companies, however, the procurement of electricity is a problem and leads to production losses.
Even after three years of Russian invasion, surveys show that more than half of Ukrainians still support President Zelensky - even if Trump has cast doubt on this. There is also still a majority against territorial cessions and other concessions to Russia. However, the proportion of those who would like to see an end to the war through negotiations and compromises is steadily increasing.
How does Ukraine intend to achieve an end to the war?
Officially, Ukraine will hardly give up its territories occupied by Russia. However, the demands that the Russians withdraw behind the border have practically fallen silent. Selensky speaks less of victory than of a just peace. The crucial question is how Ukraine can be protected once the fighting has ended.
"The first priority is security guarantees - not just in words, but in real economic and military strength," said Selenskyj. "Ukraine cannot live under the threat of another attack." He understands this to mean a combination of NATO and EU membership, the deployment of troops from friendly states and a strong army of its own.
And on the other side: how has the war changed Russia?
In Moscow, there is little sign of the war - even the posters with high bonuses calling people to join the front have diminished. At most, there are more soldiers walking around at train stations. However, the militarization of Russia has made great progress nationwide. Russia has switched completely to a war economy. According to media reports, the Russian leadership is spending the equivalent of around 127 billion Swiss francs on military and security this year. This corresponds to around 40 percent of budget expenditure.
The defense sector is the growth driver of the Russian economy. The high salaries paid to front-line soldiers and the compensation paid to their surviving dependants are providing a modest upturn in the province.
At the same time, war rhetoric pervades society and politics. Critical statements about Putin's invasion and the atrocities committed by Russian soldiers are banned. Dissenters are in prison, silent or in exile. Due to the incessant propaganda, a fortress mentality has spread among large sections of the population. Initially, many ordinary Russians were shocked by the attack on their neighboring country. Now the majority have come to terms with it and see themselves in conflict with the West.
Is Moscow ready to end the war?
Putin is happy that Trump wants to talk to him again. He has repeatedly emphasized his willingness to negotiate in principle. But because he sees himself as being on the winning track militarily, he is sticking to maximum demands. They amount to a political subjugation of the neighboring country.
Russia unalterably regards the Crimean peninsula and the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as its territory. This would mean that Ukraine would also have to vacate the large cities of Zaporizhia and Kherson, which it has defended to date.
Any remaining Ukraine would also be under Moscow's influence. Russia therefore rejects Ukraine's membership of NATO. It is demanding extensive disarmament of its neighbor and a say in the language policy for the Russian minority in the country.
(No) prospect of an end?
The rapprochement between the new US administration and the Kremlin is rapidly taking shape - Trump and Putin have spoken on the phone, the foreign ministers met in Saudi Arabia and a summit is on the cards. Ukraine is in danger of the major nuclear powers reaching an agreement behind its back.
This is because the USA has declared Kiev's membership of NATO and the reconquest of lost territories to be unrealistic. Trump turned his anger against Zelensky, calling him a dictator and even accusing Ukraine of having started the war itself.
The European states are still reeling from the US announcement that they have no say in Ukraine, but should shoulder the burden of securing peace. And their own protection from Moscow under the US nuclear umbrella is shaky. The EU states are discussing the threatening situation in ever new rounds. Defending Ukraine would be expensive. But the Europeans are also aware that an enforced peace with a barely viable Ukraine could once again drive millions of people to flee.
