Super election day in the UK An "absolute bloodbath" looms for Prime Minister Starmer's party
The ruling Labour Party is facing heavy defeats in the upcoming regional and local elections.
Image: Keystone
He is still smiling, but the air is getting thinner and thinner for Starmer.
Image: Keystone
Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage is confident of victory.
Image: Keystone
The ruling Labour Party is facing heavy defeats in the upcoming regional and local elections.
Image: Keystone
He is still smiling, but the air is getting thinner and thinner for Starmer.
Image: Keystone
Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage is confident of victory.
Image: Keystone
The ruling Labour Party is heading for a devastating result in the local and regional elections in the United Kingdom. Is this the end of the road for Prime Minister Keir Starmer?
07.05.2026, 05:45
dpa
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- This Thursday is super election day in the UK.
- In the regional and local elections, new regional parliaments will be elected in Scotland and Wales.
- Local and mayoral elections are taking place in many parts of England.
- But their significance goes far beyond the regional and local level: for months there has been speculation as to whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have to step down after what was seen as a certain electoral debacle for his Labour Party.
Today is super election day in the UK. In the regional and local elections, new regional parliaments will be elected in Scotland and Wales. Local and mayoral elections are due in many parts of England, but their significance goes far beyond the regional and local level. For months, there has been speculation as to whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have to step down following the election debacle for his Labour Party, which was seen as a certainty.
Even the cohesion of the country and the constitutional structure are in danger of being shaken by the consequences of these elections. A fragmentation and polarization of the British party landscape would put the electoral system to a severe test, warn political scientists.
In addition to Labour, the Conservatives, the other major British party, are likely to fare particularly badly. The right-wing populists of Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, and the British Greens, whose new leader Zack Polanski is challenging the conventional image of the politician, are already seen as sure winners.
Why is Starmer in trouble?
Although Starmer's Labour Party won an overwhelming victory in the British general election in 2024, it was already clear at the time that it would not be an easy parliamentary term.
Despite a solid majority in parliament, the British Social Democrats had received just under 34% of the votes. This is due to the pure majority voting system, which only allows one winner in each constituency, while the votes for the second and third-placed candidates and others are forfeited ("the winner takes it all").
The prime minister has also brought his party back from a far-left position to the center, alienating many MPs from the left wing in the process.
Failed reform projects and scandals
This was followed by a number of failed reform projects and scandals. It also became increasingly clear that Starmer had no vision for the future of the UK, which was in economic difficulties following Brexit, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Starmer has so far been unable to fulfill his promise to restore more integrity to the office of head of government after years of chaos under the Conservatives. The Prime Minister recently came under pressure because he appointed Peter Mandelson, a former confidant of the deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as ambassador to the USA. There had been clear warning signs.
"Since the general election, the popularity of the Labour Party has declined rapidly and steadily and Keir Starmer is particularly unpopular," says political scientist Sara Hobolt from the London School of Economics shortly before the election. Regarding Labour's expected performance in the local elections in England, she says: "It will be an absolute bloodbath." There is speculation that the Labour Party could use the election result as an opportunity to oust Starmer.
Who could succeed Starmer?
The lack of a suitable candidate for the succession is seen as the strongest argument in favor of Starmer remaining in office.
Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Health Minister Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and Energy Minister Ed Miliband are said to have ambitions. But none of them stand out. Burnham at best, but he would first have to make it into parliament, which would be no easy feat.
What can we expect in Scotland and Wales?
The governing party's poor poll ratings at national level are also causing problems for party colleagues in Scotland and Wales.
Just two years ago, it looked as if Labour would be able to wrest back its former stronghold in the north from the pro-independence SNP - this is no longer the case. The Labour Party's decades-long dominance in Wales is also on the brink of collapse. In the capital Cardiff, the independence party Plaid Cymru is on course to become the strongest force for the first time.
In Edinburgh, despair was already so great weeks ago that Scotland's Labor leader Anas Sarwar called on his party colleague Starmer to resign. But even this does not seem to be reflected in the voters' favor. Like Plaid Cymru, the SNP is heading for an election victory.
For the first time in history, all self-governing parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) could be led by independence parties. A break-up of the United Kingdom may not be imminent, but the forces working towards it will be strengthened.
What does a possible victory mean for Farage's right-wing populists?
Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage 's Reform Party has been leading the national polls for more than a year. Its ratings are even better than those of the AfD in Germany. According to the polls, Reform is at just under 30 percent, while Labor and the Conservatives, also known as the Tories, are barely making it to the 20 percent mark.
It is unclear whether this would be reflected in a general election, which is not due until 2029. However, a gain of up to a good 2,000 district council seats, as some polls suggest, is likely to massively strengthen the electoral capabilities of the still young party, says LSE politics professor Tony Travers.
His colleague Hobolt warns that Reform UK could win an absolute majority of seats in the upcoming general election thanks to the British first-past-the-post system, according to current poll figures. In a country with no written constitution and few constraints on the executive, there is widespread concern that this could be tantamount to a system change.
Politics professor Anand Menon from King's College in London takes a relaxed view. He believes that even if Starmer is replaced, there is unlikely to be an early election. Moreover, the system can be influenced by tactical voting. "We are still a long way away from a Prime Minister Farage," he says in an interview with the German Press Agency.
When can the results be expected?
The first election results are expected to come in from various London constituencies on Friday night. Even in the capital, which has become a Labor stronghold in recent decades, the Social Democrats must expect heavy losses. In Scotland and Wales, the count will not take place until Friday. Some results are not expected to be known until Saturday.
