Economy Analysts' expectations brighten significantly after customs deal
The customs deal with Donald Trump is said to have brought about a turnaround. Financial analysts surveyed by the major bank UBS are once again much more optimistic about the prospects for the Swiss economy.
26.11.2025, 10:06
SDA
The CFA indicator compiled as part of the monthly survey conducted by UBS improved sharply to 12.2 points in November, as the major bank announced on Wednesday. The index thus climbed by almost 20 points compared to the previous month and reached its highest level since January.
Prior to that, the index had plummeted in September (-46.4) and August (-53.8) due to the tariff shock on August 1, when Trump introduced an increase in the punitive tariff for Switzerland to 39%.
Above all, analysts' expectations regarding export momentum have recently brightened considerably, UBS explained, pointing to the joint declaration of intent between Switzerland and the USA for a trade agreement.
Accordingly, 40 percent of the analysts surveyed now expect export momentum to improve over the next six months. This is a quarter more than a month ago. Only around 15 percent expected a deterioration.
SNB will keep its feet still for the time being
Meanwhile, experts believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will not make any interest rate hike at its monetary policy assessment in December. The probability of this is 72 percent.
The SNB is also expected to leave its key interest rate at 0% in the coming quarters. However, negative interest rates remain an issue. According to the analysts surveyed, there is a 34% probability that the key interest rate will be negative at the end of September 2026.
41 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part in the current November survey. It took place between November 13 and 19 - the tariff deal with the USA was announced on November 14.
