Armenia remains on course towards the West after the election

Ex-president Robert Kocharyan and his party alliance Armenia came in third with 9.9 percent of the vote. Kocharyan is said to have excellent relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While the election commission had initially awarded the Prosperous Armenia party exactly four percent, the third pro-Russian force appears to have failed to reach the four-percent hurdle with 3.996 percent after a renewal of the data and thus missed out on a place in parliament. However, the head of the election commission Waagn Owakimjan emphasized that these figures were also provisional and subject to verification and correction.

OSCE praises election process, but criticizes the election campaign

After the election, observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) spoke of a "real election" in a tense campaign atmosphere. "The spate of arrests and prosecutions of opposition figures contributed to the perception of selective justice," said Farah Karimi, head of the short-term OSCE observer mission, according to a statement. There was also pressure on public sector employees to attend events organized by the ruling party. The OSCE also criticized attempts at interference from outside. The criticism was directed at Moscow, without naming Russia directly.

On the other hand, the observers were largely positive about election day. "The elections were generally peaceful and without incident. The election process was calm and very well organized," said Nathalie Loiseau, head of a delegation from the European Parliament.

Higher voter turnout than in the last election

At 59%, voter turnout was significantly higher than in the previous parliamentary elections in 2021, when it was only 49%.

The high level of voter activity is also due to the importance of the ballot, which was seen as a directional election by both the government and the opposition. Under Pashinyan, who has been in power since 2018, Armenia is moving closer to the West and striving to join the EU. This is happening at the expense of relations with its long-standing ally Russia.

Loss of Nagorno-Karabakh as a crisis and turning point

Pashinyan has already had to endure a number of crises in recent years. The long conflict with arch-enemy Azerbaijan has been particularly troublesome for Armenia. In two short but bloody conflicts between 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan conquered Nagorno-Karabakh, which was inhabited by a majority of ethnic Armenians at the time.

100,000 Armenians had to flee from the region to the heartland. In the Armenian capital Yerevan, people took to the streets - including against Pashinyan, whom they accused of incompetence. To this day, parts of the population are still very angry with the head of government, who was unable to defend Nagorno-Karabakh against its oil-rich and well-armed neighbor.

But at the same time, the loss of the territory also shook the faith of many people in the country in Russia as a traditional protecting power. The Russian leadership, which was at war in Ukraine at the time, did not help the Armenians and remained passive in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Pashinyan: traitor or peacemaker?

This is another reason why Pashinyan has only strengthened his western course in recent years. Wedged between Azerbaijan and its great ally Turkey, Armenia is dependent on a compromise with its stronger neighbors. In order to secure a stable peace with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan relied on Europeans and the USA as mediators.

While the opposition accused him of treason for his defeat in the war and subsequent negotiations, the head of government emphasized the importance of peace in the region. In fact, many Armenians have recently credited Pashinyan with helping to establish peace and security. "There is no more constant shooting at the border, that's good," said Lilith, a tour guide from Yerevan, who identifies herself as a supporter of Pashinyan. She explained that she had voted for Pashinyan because of this and because she did not want the corrupt old elite, which had allied itself with Moscow, to return.

"The mood in the country has changed," says Jacob Wöllenstein, the political director of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in the South Caucasus. "Even if many people don't like Pashinyan, there is no alternative."

Pressure from Russia goes down badly in Armenia

The Kremlin itself is not entirely innocent of the defeat of the pro-Russian forces in the ex-Soviet republic. In recent months, Moscow has deliberately exacerbated tensions: the Russian government has imposed import bans on Armenian products and threatened to terminate a favorable gas supply contract. Kremlin leader Putin even declared that the conflict with Ukraine had also started because of its rapprochement with the EU.

In view of the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than four years, many Armenians took this as a threat. And so many people who had stayed at home last time went to vote.

Fierce election campaign

The election campaign was highly polarized, marked by scandals and - sometimes deliberately false - accusations. While Pashinyan was accused of planning to resettle hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis in the country, the government accused Russia and its allied opposition of vote-buying.

According to a government representative, Armenians living in Russia were sent to their home country specifically to vote for pro-Russian parties in return for payment. The authorities have opened several criminal proceedings and arrests were made even on election day. However, the government has not presented any solid evidence for the accusation.

Pashinyan, who himself came to power in 2018 after protests over rigged elections, does not believe that such a scenario will be repeated. The result is too clear for that. "I rule out that the Armenian people will somehow allow this three-headed war party to flinch," he said, referring to the three pro-Russian opposition parties.

Pashinyan now has a mandate for five more years. To do so, however, he must solve the existing problems with Russia. The dream of joining the EU is still a long way off, and Armenia will continue to be heavily dependent on Russia for its everyday economy for the time being.