Failed FPÖ/ÖVP coalition Austria's politics are in ruins - what's next?
The coalition negotiations between the FPÖ and ÖVP have failed. This means that Austria is still without a new government. Political scientist Peter Filzmaier assesses the situation for blue News.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- On Wednesday, the right-wing populist FPÖ and the conservative ÖVP broke off coalition negotiations in Austria.
- This means that there is still no new government. Possible options now are a government of experts or new elections.
- In an interview with blue News, political scientist Peter Filzmaier assesses how things could continue in Austria.
Herbert Kickl, federal party chairman of the right-wing populist FPÖ, has failed shortly before entering the Austrian chancellery. Following the collapse of the coalition talks with the conservative ÖVP, Kickl resigned from forming a government. "I am not taking this step without regret," wrote the FPÖ leader.
For the time being, the development prevents a right-wing populist from becoming Austria's head of government for the first time. However, it also means that the country is still without a new government four and a half months after the National Council elections.
Austria's Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen has invited all party leaders to meet with him over the next few days to explore ways out of the political impasse. In an interview with blue News, Austrian political scientist Peter Filzmaier assesses the situation.
FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl has returned the order to form a government. Is that definitely it with a Chancellor Kickl?
Peter Filzmaier: Herbert Kickl has failed to make use of the current window of opportunity, not least because of his lack of ability to compromise. Obviously, this is less than that of FPÖ state chairmen, because the party is represented in five out of nine state governments.
Kickl's hope now is that he will be stronger after new elections - whenever these take place, which could be soon or not until 2029 - and that majorities against the FPÖ will become increasingly difficult in realpolitik terms. Of course, he has no guarantee that a weakened ÖVP will want him as a partner if he becomes even more dominant and demanding than he already is after a major election victory.
It also remains to be seen whether the party will not accuse him of missing the current window of opportunity at some point in the medium term. He needs new elections soon because the message "In 2029, as a 61-year-old, I'm really taking off!" has great uncertainties in the short-lived political business.
At first it looked like a quick agreement between the FPÖ and ÖVP, the joint austerity package was already presented in mid-January. How do you explain the collapse of the coalition?
About the person
Peter Filzmaier is Professor for Democracy Studies and Political Research at the Danube University Krems and for Political Communication at the Karl-Franzens-University Graz. He is also a regular political expert on Austrian public broadcaster ORF.
On three things: Content-related conflicts, structural inconsistencies and, above all, an almost bizarre failure of communication in the final phase.
Firstly, there were more contradictions than expected and necessary because the FPÖ demanded things that would have been impossible to implement. These included, for example, the abolition of compulsory membership of the chamber system, which would have required a two-thirds majority that the FPÖ and ÖVP do not have. Or the suspension of the right of asylum, which leading European lawyers consider to be illegal.
Secondly, there was not even a consensus as to whether content and tasks should be negotiated first and then the ministry structure. Either "form follows function" or "function follows form" can be argued, but of course every negotiation failed if one wanted it one way and the other the other way round.
Thirdly, negotiating positions were recently only aligned in public via the media and not discussed behind closed doors. This has made any compromise without loss of face impossible. Did Kickl seriously believe that the ÖVP would simply acknowledge his far-reaching and offensive demands with a "Thank you, dear Herbert!" after an ultimate Facebook post by him? That would be absurd.
The coalition negotiations were preceded by a change of course by the ÖVP regarding cooperation with the FPÖ, which triggered demonstrations against the impending shift to the right. Now the talks have nevertheless failed. Is the ÖVP the big loser of the last few days?
Yes and no. Of course, the ÖVP's loss of image has continued as it has now failed twice in negotiations despite a U-turn. But should cooperation with the SPÖ be possible after all, the ÖVP would suddenly be the chancellor's party again for up to five more years.
New elections, a minority government, a government of experts or a coalition - which scenario do you think is the most likely?
As far as new elections are concerned, that is of course possible. But assuming the FPÖ is right and it would be the only winner and profiteer, why would the other parties want that and decide on new elections? The FPÖ can only make the motion in parliament, but it also needs partners for a majority. However, the other parties will sound out alternative options beforehand.
Initial signals are therefore pointing towards another attempt to negotiate a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ. Whether with a third partner or not, this would be a majority option. So far, however, there have been no signals from the SPÖ that it would indirectly support a minority government of the ÖVP and the liberal NEOS.
A government of experts sounds good, but would be the most difficult to implement in practice. Government proposals also require a parliamentary majority, so a party consensus would be needed for every measure. Why should experts be able to achieve this consensus more easily than party members? And who wants to be an expert in such a government anyway, even though you might have to give up your job without the option of returning and the government adventure could be over again in a few months?
Suppose there were to be new elections. What impact could the renewed failure to form a government have on the result - especially for the FPÖ and ÖVP?
As the polls stand now, the FPÖ in particular would make gains and the ÖVP would lose even more. But of course there is still no serious poll that takes into account the events of the last few days. And in the same way, no one knows whether there won't be different top candidates for several parties in the event of new elections - these would not be held until the end of May at the earliest and realistically not until June or the fall. This applies to the ÖVP as well as the Greens, where party leader Kogler has already announced his medium-term withdrawal from top politics.
Four and a half months have now passed since the National Council elections - but there is still no new government. Is Austria's political system reaching its limits due to the new balance of power?
The system is constitutionally stable, there is a federal government entrusted with the continuation of business and all the solutions now being discussed are on a stable legal basis, regardless of whether there are new elections or a coalition, minority or expert government.
What does exist is a question of the ability of politicians to find solutions when government formations are made more difficult by ongoing polarization. However, this is a problem that affects society as a whole and is by no means limited to Austria - keyword Germany.
