France Barnier facing the end? Vote of no confidence in Paris
Less than three months after the new French government took office, Prime Minister Michel Barnier's cabinet is on the brink of collapse. The dispute over his planned austerity budget has escalated, and now the members of the National Assembly will vote on two motions of censure against the government this afternoon. What is important here:
04.12.2024, 13:01
SDA
Is it already clear what the outcome of the vote will be?
Not quite, but it is expected that a majority of MPs will withdraw their confidence in the government and thus topple it. Both the left-wing camp of Communists, Greens, Socialists and Leftists, as well as Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists, who had initially tolerated the minority government, have submitted a motion of no confidence. Together, the opposition parties achieve the necessary absolute majority of 289 votes.
Will this also vote President Macron out of office?
No. The vote of no confidence only applies to the government. President Emmanuel Macron is not part of the cabinet. At the same time, a fall from power would also put him under pressure. After all, he appointed Barnier and his centrist camp is also in government. Le Pen and the left are possibly hoping to persuade Macron to call an early presidential election by bringing down the government. The vote is not actually due until 2027. Macron cannot run again after two terms in office.
So will there be another election in France?
There will not be a new parliamentary election even if the government falls. As a reminder: Macron dissolved the National Assembly in the spring and called a new election. New elections are only possible one year after the second round of elections, in July. Even if the government were to fall, this would not change the complicated balance of power. At present, neither the center forces nor the left-wing camp nor the right-wing nationalists and their allies have a majority of their own in the parliamentary chamber.
Parts of the opposition are likely to hope for an early presidential election. However, Macron has repeatedly emphasized that he wants to remain head of state until the end of his term of office - i.e. until the regularly scheduled election in 2027.
Will France soon be without a government? What does this mean for the country?
If the vote of no confidence is successful as expected, Barnier will have to submit his resignation and that of his government to Macron. However, Macron is likely to leave the ministers in office on an acting basis until there is a new government. They could then take care of important ongoing matters, but not launch new initiatives.
However, even with a caretaker cabinet, the fall of the government in France would once again cause a political crisis. The formation of a government was already extremely complicated and protracted in the summer. In the end, the Barnier government was only able to form a tolerated cabinet without its own majority. The situation is unlikely to get any easier now that the balance of power remains the same. In addition, the budget for the coming year has not yet been approved. There is no threat of a shutdown in France as there is in the USA. However, it will be difficult to implement the necessary austerity plans without a government.
Aren't government shutdowns quite common in France?
No. In recent years, French governments have generally lasted shorter than in Germany and have also changed during a parliamentary term. Under Macron, who has been president since 2017, there have already been at least six governments with five different prime ministers, depending on how you count.
Pressure from parliament has sometimes played a role in these changes of government, but MPs have not voted the cabinet out of office. In recent French history, MPs have only once been successful with a vote of no confidence: in 1962, they withdrew their confidence in Prime Minister Georges Pompidou and his government under Head of State Charles de Gaulle. A new election was held.
