Bolivia: Run-off election between two opposition candidates

None of the candidates achieved the required majority in the first round, as the electoral authority announced after counting around 90 percent of the votes. However, it is already clear that after almost two decades of left-wing governments, a change of political direction is imminent in the South American country.

On October 19, the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round will compete against each other. These are Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira from the Christian Democratic Party "Partido Demócrata Cristiano", which is considered to belong to the political center, and former President Jorge Quiroga from the right-wing party "Libertad y Democracia" (Freedom and Democracy).

Global significance and opportunities for Germany

The emerging political change of direction is also attracting international attention: the South American country has the world's largest lithium reserves. Lithium is a key raw material for electric cars and batteries. It therefore plays an important role in the global energy transition.

However, production has only made slow progress so far, and a change of government could facilitate investment. "We are waiting in the wings," says Bolivia expert Christina Stolte from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), referring to German companies.

Economic crisis, high levels of poverty and political power struggle

Bolivia is in the midst of a deep economic crisis: a shortage of petrol and foreign currency, high inflation and a lack of medicines characterize everyday life. The left-wing government relied heavily on subsidies, especially for fuel, which put a strain on the national budget.

Bolivia is also one of the poorest countries in South America, with rural and indigenous regions particularly affected. Violence against women and girls is high, and protests occur time and again due to the poor economic situation. Around 12 million people live in the landlocked country, which is around three times the size of Germany.

Politics was long dominated by the power struggle between former President Evo Morales and outgoing head of state Luis Arce of the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party - both did not run for different reasons.

Arce withdrew before the election due to declining popularity. Morales was not allowed to run again due to constitutional term limits. He is also facing an arrest warrant for sexual abuse of a minor and has therefore been staying in his stronghold in Cochabamba for months, where supporters are protecting him.

Two moderate opposition candidates are running

Against this backdrop, two experienced opposition politicians are running against each other in the run-off election: Rodrigo Paz Pereira, son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), plans to continue his family's political tradition and open up the economy. The economist is focusing on institutional reforms and a moderate modernization programme to facilitate foreign investment.

Quiroga, who was briefly president from 2001 to 2002, is running on a liberal economic course. The industrial engineer wants to reduce the loss-making state sector, implement selective privatization and gradually reduce fuel subsidies. He is also open to cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Alongside Quiroga, entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina was originally considered the favorite for the run-off. The fact that Paz has now prevailed is considered a surprise.

Stability instead of radical upheaval

Unlike in Argentina with the radical course of President Javier Milei, the Bolivian electorate is seeking "stability, not revolution", according to KAS expert Stolte. Ethnicity hardly plays the same political role as it did under Morales, who was the first indigenous president to rule for 13 years (2006 to 2019).

According to the 2012 census, 41% of Bolivians over the age of 15 are of indigenous origin; estimates from 2017 put the figure at around 48%. Even before the election, many indigenous people who previously belonged to the MAS announced their support for the opposition.

Parliament was also re-elected

There were incidents on the sidelines of the vote. After casting his vote, left-wing candidate Andrónico Rodríguez was attacked with stones by suspected supporters of ex-President Morales. A few hours earlier, the detonation of an explosive device had been reported at the same location. There was initially no information about injuries. In addition to the presidential election, a new parliament was also elected.