The consequences would be catastrophic Can Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz?
An Iranian general has threatened to block the important Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. That would be a disaster for the global economy. But can Iran even get away with it?
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- Iran is threatening a global oil liner and wants to block the Strait of Hormuz.
- The consequences for the global economy would be "worse than corona and Putin" combined, says one expert.
- However, the mullahs have powerful opponents and can only lose.
It's an old threat with a new twist. After the start of the Israeli attacks, an Iranian general threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. If this strategically important strait between Iran and Oman were to be closed, the global economy would have a serious problem. In an initial reaction to the escalation at the end of last week, the price of a barrel (159 liters) of Brent crude oil rose to 78.50 dollars. This was an increase of 13 percent on the previous day. In the further course of trading, the price fell again slightly to 74.04 dollars.
More than 20 percent of global crude oil demand is shipped through the Persian Gulf strait, and around a quarter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also traded via this route. It is therefore no wonder that experts are warning of a disaster if Iran backs up its pithy words with action.
"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is currently under review and Iran will take the appropriate decision with full determination," threatened MP and Brigadier General Ismail Kosari openly in the newspaper "Entekhab".
Blockade would have catastrophic consequences
According to trade expert Gerrit Heinemann from the German Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, the consequences of a Hormuz blockade would be catastrophic: "Worse than Corona and Putin combined," he is quoted as saying by Bild.
A large part of the global supply chains would also be affected along with the oil supplies. A blockade would not only affect energy supplies, but also the flow of goods. As a result, inflation would rise in many economies. Russia, on the other hand, would benefit as it would be able to sell its oil more easily.
However, this worst-case scenario does not appear to be realistic, even though there are currently reports from the British Navy (UKMTO) that several ships in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have been affected by electrical faults. Iranian politicians and military leaders have frequently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the past. However, these threats have never been carried out.
Iran cannot afford the blockade
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the Mullah regime simply lacks the military means to enforce the naval blockade. They could selectively attack ships from the air or partially mine the shipping lanes. However, the tanker war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s showed that the effects of a large-scale mine attack, at that time in the entire Persian Gulf, were marginal. Even in the hottest phases of this conflict, less than two percent of the oil tankers were affected.
If Iran were nevertheless to attempt a military blockade, this would probably immediately call the US Navy into action, which has a strong presence in the region and more aircraft carriers than Iran has large combat ships. The Iranian military would simply not be able to withstand an attack by the overpowering USA.
And let's not forget China. The Middle Kingdom is one of the most important customers for Iranian oil. It seems hard to imagine that Tehran would want to upset one of its last allies. Especially as Beijing would almost certainly exert enormous pressure on the mullahs to protect its interests and use all its economic clout to do so.
Moreover, Iran in particular is especially dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, while other oil exporters can at least partially rely on pipelines to the Red Sea.
And ironically, Israel of all countries would not be affected at all. Israeli oil imports run exclusively via the Mediterranean.
With agency material.
