France Court case puts Le Pen's right-wing nationalists in trouble

The right-wing nationalists in France around Marine Le Pen have been on the rise for a long time and are now more strongly represented in parliament than ever before.

However, a court case ending this Wednesday in Paris could put the brakes on the right-wing party's ambitions. Le Pen has to answer for possible bogus employment of assistants in the EU Parliament. Although the Rassemblement National is prepared for a guilty verdict and years of legal proceedings, the prosecution's demand for punishment contains a pitfall.

Criminal demand can slow Le Pen down - "political death penalty"

In addition to five years' imprisonment, partly suspended, and a fine of 300,000 euros, the public prosecutor's office also demanded that the 56-year-old lose her right to stand for election for five years. Such a sentence would mean that Le Pen would no longer be able to be elected to public office for a period of time - and in particular, it could look bleak for her to run again in the 2027 presidential election. This is because the prosecution demanded that the penalty be applied provisionally - i.e. after the verdict and not only after a potentially lengthy run through the courts.

In this case, the right-wing party's strategy of dragging out the legal dispute as long as possible and coordinating the court and election calendars would not work. After the plea, Le Pen promptly accused the prosecution of "depriving the French of the opportunity to vote for whomever they want". The sentence demanded was extremely excessive. She also accused the judiciary of acting politically when she said that the public prosecutor's office was demanding "the political death penalty with provisional execution against me".

Le Pen clearly normalized far-right party

Even though the verdict is not expected until next spring, and not on the last day of the trial on Wednesday, a change of strategy is already apparent in Le Pen. Since taking over the party leadership from her father and co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen has made efforts to moderate the previously clearly right-wing extremist party and turned the former splinter group into a political force to be taken seriously, which now also appears to be electable for broad sections of the population.

And in the Paris National Assembly, where the Rassemblement National (formerly the Front National) is now the strongest opposition group, Le Pen and the right-wing MPs have tried to present a moderate image and a sense of responsibility for the country's major problems.

Vote of no confidence as a means of putting pressure on the judiciary

Now, however, Le Pen, who had previously signaled cooperation, is threatening the new Prime Minister Michel Barnier with a vote of no confidence in the course of difficult budget discussions. This could lead to the fall of the government before the end of the year, provided that the left and right camps pull together. Le Pen is thus giving the impression that she wants to put pressure on the judiciary, which she sees as politically controlled, in order to obtain a verdict in her favor.

Behind Le Pen's change of course and the threat of a vote of no confidence is ultimately also an attempt to topple Macron, against whom Le Pen lost in the final round of the last two presidential elections as a challenger. Now Le Pen - like the old left-wing poltergeist Jean-Luc Mélenchon - senses an opportunity to emerge victorious from early presidential elections. Head of state Macron at least cannot run again after two terms in office.

SDA