Politics Current forecast: Right-wing conservative leads in Poland election
According to the latest forecasts, the right-wing conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is ahead of his liberal rival Rafal Trzaskowski in the run-off election for the Polish presidency.
02.06.2025, 03:05
SDA
According to figures released by the polling institute Ipsos early Monday morning, the EU-sceptic Nawrocki received 51 percent of the vote, while the pro-European Trzaskowski received 49 percent. Voter turnout was 71.7 percent - a good three percentage points higher than in the previous election five years ago.
Given the narrow margin, the election result is still open. A victory for Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is still conceivable. The forecasts are based on post-election surveys in 500 polling stations and partial counts from 450 of the polling stations. According to Ipsos, the margin of error is 0.5 percentage points.
Both candidates had presented themselves to their supporters as confident of victory after the polls closed, although a neck-and-neck race was looming. Initial predictions immediately after the polls closed had seen Trzaskowski as the winner, and he had already declared himself the winner - but the balance of votes later changed.
Directional election in Poland
The approximately 29 million eligible voters were called upon to elect a successor to President Andrzej Duda. The latter was not allowed to run again after two terms in office. The vote is seen as a directional election for the EU and NATO member state Poland. Nawrocki, who has no party affiliation, is the candidate of the right-wing conservative PiS, Poland's largest opposition party. The PiS governed the country from 2015 to 2023, placing the judiciary under the control of politicians and was in a permanent quarrel with Brussels due to this interference in the separation of powers.
The center-left alliance of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which has been in power since December 2023, has attempted to reverse much of this with reform projects. However, the previous President Duda, who comes from the ranks of the PiS, put the brakes on these projects with his veto. Tusk does not have the necessary majority of 60 percent in parliament to override presidential vetoes.
President with a lot of power
The Polish head of government is therefore hoping that his political rival Trzaskowski will win the election. The 53-year-old is considered progressive and left-wing within his political camp. As head of state, he would support Tusk's course.
In Poland, the president holds office for five years. The head of state has more powers than the Federal President in Germany and not only represents the country to the outside world. The president also has influence on foreign policy, appoints the head of government and the cabinet and is the commander-in-chief of the Polish armed forces in the event of war. Above all, however, he can make life difficult for the government with his right of veto.
