Election in Armenia a test between East and West

This question overshadows today's vote, in which 2.5 million Armenians are entitled to vote. The election campaign was characterized by misinformation, threats and accusations - and above all demonstrated the complicated relationship between the current government in Yerevan and the leadership in Moscow.

The tensions have existed for years, but have intensified massively in recent months. In April, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin received the Armenian head of government Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow. Putin was annoyed that Yerevan had officially committed itself to the goal of joining the EU. This was incompatible with membership of the Moscow-dominated economic alliance EAEU, Putin informed his guest.

And then the authoritarian Putin suddenly presented himself as a fighter for political pluralism. He accused his guest of obstructing the opposition. There are strong pro-Russian forces in Armenia and he would like them to take part in the election, Putin said. However, the Kremlin leader complained that some of them were in custody, even though they had a Russian passport.

Moscow has increased pressure after Putin's meeting with Pashinyan

Pashinyan's response went viral. Armenia is democratic, there are no restrictions, said Pashinyan. "Our social networks, for example, are one hundred percent free" and there are no political prisoners in his country. He did not say the half-sentence "unlike Russia", but it remained unsaid in the room - and clearly displeased Putin.

Since then, the pressure from Moscow has increased practically on a weekly basis. Russia has continued to restrict the import of Armenian goods - flowers and a whole list of foodstuffs have been placed on the index by the Russian consumer protection authority, allegedly due to quality defects. Moscow had already used this mechanism in previous conflicts: Certain products always became defective when a country's political relations with Moscow deteriorated.

Putin: It started the same way with Ukraine

However, Russia did not stop there. The energy ministry in Moscow threatened to terminate a favorable gas supply contract - and finally Putin publicly reminded Yerevan that the conflict with Ukraine had also begun with the country's aspirations to join the EU. As Russia has been at war with Ukraine for over four years, this could certainly be seen as a threat.

Whether the pressure will bring the desired result remains to be seen. "We're not going to sell off our future because of two loads of flowers," says Gework, a haulier from the small town of Djermuk. He is not a big fan of Pashinyan, but he thinks even less of the pro-Russian parties led by billionaire Zamvel Karapetyan or former President Robert Kocharyan, who is considered a friend of Putin. "I don't want to go back to the Soviet Union," he says.

Pashinyan's Achilles' heel is the lost war over Nagorno-Karabakh

Only three years ago, Pashinyan suffered a heavy defeat. Arch-enemy Azerbaijan attacked the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is disputed between the two neighboring countries, and conquered it completely after a short period of heavy fighting. Around 100,000 ethnic Armenians had to flee from there to the heartland. This resulted in a severe domestic political crisis - and Pashinyan's future was in doubt.

But the protests did not bring about an overthrow. Although the opposition continues to accuse Pashinyan of betraying national interests, it does not appear to offer a credible alternative to his policies. Armenia is too weak militarily to counterattack.

Compromise with former enemies a way out?

Recently, there has been a growing number of voices who believe that Pashinyan's policy of reaching an understanding with Azerbaijan and its protecting power Turkey is the right one. The head of government has also managed to gain international backing for this, for example from US President Donald Trump's administration. Most recently, even US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a stopover in Yerevan to sign a bilateral cooperation agreement.

"The mood in the country has changed," observes Jacob Wöllenstein, Political Director of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in the South Caucasus. The government's work is now viewed more positively, especially on the issue of peace and security, which is important to many people. Pashinyan has also been successful in creating new jobs, he told the German Press Agency. "Even if many people don't like Pashinyan, there is no alternative". The parts of the opposition perceived as being loyal to the Kremlin are certainly not.

Society is polarized

It was previously unclear whether Pashinyan would ultimately win the election. His "Civil Contract" party will probably win the most votes, but could be dependent on partners in order to form the government again.

Poll results fluctuate greatly. It is therefore still unclear how many political parties or blocs will enter parliament. Should none of the political forces ultimately be able to form a majority government, Armenians will have to go to the polls again in four weeks' time.