Iran Escalation in Yemen: A country torn apart by war
An airstrike takes place at the port of Mukalla in southern Yemen early on Tuesday morning. Dozens of SUVs and armored vehicles parked there go up in flames. It is a new level of escalation between the Gulf states Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are actually allies. What goals are they pursuing in the country and what could happen next in the Yemen conflict? The most important questions:
31.12.2025, 13:41
SDA
What kind of country is Yemen?
Yemen is an Arab country bordering Saudi Arabia and Oman. It is largely inhabited by Muslims. Due to its location at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, it is on one of the most important routes for world trade. Despite its own oil and gas reserves, it is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world, where most people live from agriculture. The humanitarian situation is dramatic - 19 million people are dependent on aid.
For decades, Yemen has been plagued by divisions along sectarian, regional and tribal lines. The state is weak and other countries - currently above all its big neighbor Saudi Arabia and Iran - have great influence. The country was divided into two parts from 1967 to 1990 and even now there are demands from separatists in the south to secede from the north, as well as corresponding demonstrations. Around 70 to 80 percent of the population live in the north. Extremists are also active in the country, and there are repeated attacks and kidnappings.
Since when has there been a civil war and why?
The current civil war began in 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthi militia forcibly took over the north, including the capital Sanaa. The Huthi belong to the Shiite Saidite movement and have repeatedly instigated uprisings against the Sunni leadership in the country. In the north, they rule in a dwarf state and implement their ideology in a totalitarian manner, presumably also by torturing and killing critics and journalists. In their conflict with Israel, the Houthis have also attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, in some cases sinking them or setting them ablaze.
Neighboring Saudi Arabia sees its own security threatened by the Huthi and began bombing militia targets in Yemen in 2015 with allies, including the United Arab Emirates. The aim was to support the Yemeni government and push back the influence of the Huthi - and therefore Iran - in the country. More than 150,000 people lost their lives in the war as a direct military consequence. Despite a ceasefire from 2022 and efforts to mediate, the conflict with the Houthi continues.
What are the latest attacks all about?
These are a new high point in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, which are actually allies in the fight against the Houthis. Until now, Riyadh has regarded Abu Dhabi as a kind of junior partner. However, the Emirates are increasingly pursuing their own interests in Yemen, as in Sudan and the wider Red Sea region, and have been supporting the separatists of the so-called Southern Transitional Council (STC) in southern Yemen for years. In recent weeks, these have taken over large areas in the east, which also border Saudi Arabia, putting Riyadh under pressure.
Tensions between the two Gulf powers have continued to escalate since then and have now reached a new high. A military alliance led by Saudi Arabia bombed the port of Mukalla on Tuesday and accused the Emirates of supplying weapons and vehicles to the separatists there, which Abu Dhabi rejected. There were no casualties. Riyadh also joined Yemeni demands for an immediate withdrawal of Emirati troops from the country. Hours later, the Emirates finally announced the "voluntary" withdrawal of their remaining troops.
What interests do Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have in Yemen?
Saudi Arabia is concerned about its own security and wants to stabilize Yemen. There are close religious and cultural ties between the two countries. Saudi Arabia wants to maintain its influence and also secure the shipping routes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which are very important for oil and world trade as a whole. Riyadh also does not want to see its influence diminished by Abu Dhabi.
The Emirates, on the other hand, would like to secure access to the ports in southern Yemen, among other things. They do not necessarily want to develop these, says Sultan Barakat, a politics professor at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, to the Al-Jazeera news channel. Rather, they wanted to ensure that the Emirati port of Jabal Ali retains its position as the most important regional hub for shipping.
What could happen now?
The biggest open rift between the two Gulf states to date seems to have been overcome for the time being. The state-affiliated Saudi media are celebrating the development as a clear victory over the Emirates. However, the announced withdrawal of Emirati troops is more symbolic, as most of them were already withdrawn in 2019. According to Abu Dhabi, only special anti-terrorism teams remain anyway. There are no figures on their strength.
However, the conflict between the Gulf powers will continue. The Emirates are likely to continue to support the STC or demand a greater say in shaping the future of Yemen. New fighting between the separatists and the government troops supported by Riyadh could create a new front in southern or eastern Yemen. Publicly, however, both Gulf states want to preserve their image of not being warmongers but safe islands in a region plagued by unrest. The conflict is therefore most likely to be fought through their allies and proxies.
How is the war linked to other conflicts in the region?
Experts see links to the conflict in Sudan, which is also located on the Red Sea and where Riyadh and Abu Dhabi also support different sides. The Emirates have recently gained the impression that Riyadh is seeking US sanctions against Abu Dhabi because of its alleged arms deliveries to the country. This was reported by the German Press Agency from informed sources in the Gulf. Riyadh rejects this. However, these developments around Sudan had contributed to the Emirates driving forward the sudden advance of the STC in Yemen.
There are also connections with the de facto independent region of Somaliland on the Horn of Africa, which Israel recently recognized as a sovereign state and whose coast is only dozens of kilometers away from Yemen as the crow flies. If Israel were to station troops there, it would be a direct threat to Saudi Arabia. The message that Riyadh sent with the surprise airstrike in Yemen was probably also directed at Somaliland, says Abdel Kadir al-Chali, a political observer in Yemen, to dpa.
