Natural hazards ETH model enables predictions of alpine mass movements
A new 3D simulation tool developed by Swiss researchers enables significantly more precise predictions of complex alpine mass movements. It proved its accuracy during the landslide in Blatten VS.
07.07.2025, 11:43
SDA
The model can predict the course, height and propagation of snow, ice and rock avalanches, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH) announced on Monday. Researchers from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF were also involved in the project. The program could make an important contribution to risk management in alpine regions.
Classic models are very useful for initial assessments, the report continued. However, they reach their limits when the terrain - as in Blatten - is rugged and irregular. In such terrain, the landslide mass moves in many directions simultaneously, which is why their calculation quickly becomes too complex.
The new model calculates every single movement inside an avalanche or landslide and not just an average flow, wrote the ETH. The researchers estimate the amount of detached material based on the movements and temporal changes of the mountain surface. They estimate the sliding resistance against the sliding of the rock on the basis of rock tests.
The landslide in Blatten showed that the model works reliably. As in reality, the simulation results showed that most of Blatten was destroyed and that the hamlet of Weissenried was only just spared from the falling masses of rock and ice, according to the ETH.
