Launch on February 6 Experts consider Nasa moon probe unsafe

Nasa is preparing for a groundbreaking step: a manned flight around the moon. But not all experts are convinced that the spacecraft is safe enough.

On February 6, four Nasa astronauts set off on a flight around the moon. They will do so in a spacecraft whose heat shield has not always been convincing in the past.

This is the problem area of the Orion space probe: a special protective shield designed to protect the spacecraft from temperatures of over 2700 degrees Celsius on re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. However, the Artemis I unmanned test flight in 2022 revealed that the shield had weaknesses. Unexpected material losses, cracks and massive damage made experts sit up and take notice.

"This is a deviated heat shield," explained Dr. Danny Olivas, ex-astronaut and member of a NASA test team on CNN. This is not the shield that Nasa actually wants to hand over to its astronauts, he explained. Nevertheless, Olivas believes that the space agency has understood the problem and has it under control.

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Flight path adapted instead of heat shield

After months of analysis, Nasa nevertheless decided to use the Artemis II capsule as planned - it was no longer possible to replace the already installed shield anyway. Instead, the return trajectory was adjusted slightly to put less strain on the shield.

Nasa remains convinced: "There are uncertainties in every decision," the authority said in a statement. The new flight path should produce a steeper re-entry phase and reduce the stress duration - a safety benefit, according to the engineers.

Artemis II commander Reid Wiseman was also optimistic: "The error has been found. If we follow the new plan, the shield will work safely."

But not everyone shares this optimism.

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Nasa veteran warns

Dr. Charlie Camarda, himself an ex-astronaut and heat shield expert, is sounding the alarm. He sharply criticizes Nasa's actions: "We could have solved the problem long ago," says Camarda, who apparently saw his warnings to the Nasa leadership go unheeded. His concern: the decision could be a mistake with fatal consequences.

The material used was already used in the Apollo missions, albeit in a different form, writes CNN. In order to make production more efficient, Orion opted for large block segments instead of the previous honeycomb structure. The result: the new version was less permeable - a problem that became apparent during the Artemis I test. Gases could not escape and material burst off.

However, the shield for Artemis II has none of the permeable areas that proved to be stable during the test flight. Nevertheless, Nasa is sticking to its plan. A special unit has calculated all the risks, according to a confidential meeting. Olivas says: "I trust these engineers, they have done a phenomenal job."

In its report, CNN quotes other experts and former NASA employees who do not consider Orion to be safe enough or at least criticize the probe's development process.

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Bad memories of the Columbia disaster

Camarda, on the other hand, remains skeptical. He criticizes the simulation software used as being too simple. "It only tells you whether a crack could occur - not how it will grow."

For Camarda, the debate brings back dark memories. After the Columbia accident in 2003, he was part of the first crew to fly back into space after the disaster. He warns against drawing the wrong conclusions from a possible success of Artemis II: "If everything goes well, everyone thinks they are safe. That is dangerous."

Olivas also warns against complacency: "Our story is not perfect. Sometimes we're just lucky - and mistake that for skill."

The report on CNN gives the impression that NASA is letting it depend on whether Orion survives re-entry into the atosphere or not - with four people on board. But that is not the case. Those responsible are convinced that the heat shield is strong enough, despite all doubts.

Final destination Mars

The crew of the Artemis II mission will orbit the moon in the Orion space probe for around ten days before returning to Earth. The purpose of Artemis II is to prepare for a manned landing on the moon (Artmis IV) and ultimately a permanent space station orbiting the moon. This should one day also be able to be used as an intermediate station for flights to Mars. NASA is driving the Artemis program forward together with international partners.