Politics Forecasts: CDU/CSU wins federal election in Germany
According to initial forecasts by television stations ARD and ZDF, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) led by opposition leader Friedrich Merz are by far the strongest force in the German federal elections.
23.02.2025, 18:11
SDA
The Social Democrats (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz fell back to their worst result of all federal elections. The right-wing populist AfD became the second strongest party.
According to forecasts, the CDU/CSU led by opposition leader Friedrich Merz received 28.5 to 29% of the vote (2021: 24.2%). The right-wing populist AfD follows in second place with 19.5 to 20 percent (2021: 10.4 percent). The SPD plummeted to 16.0 to 16.5% (2021: 25.7), its worst result in a federal election to date. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Greens deteriorated slightly to between 12 and 13.5% (2021: 14.7).
The FDP, which had co-governed in Scholz's "traffic light" coalition until November, has to tremble for re-entry into the Bundestag with 4.9 to 5.0 percent (2021: 11.4). The Left Party gained 8.5 to 9.0 percent (2021: 4.9) and would therefore be represented in the Bundestag again as a parliamentary group. The newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a split-off from the Left Party, could also fail to reach the five percent threshold to enter parliament with 4.7 to 5.0 percent
The election, originally planned for September, was brought forward after the "traffic light" coalition collapsed in November due to a dispute over the budget. Since then, Scholz has led a minority government consisting of the SPD and the Greens.
The formation of a new German government is likely to be difficult given this balance of power. The AfD, which is classified in some quarters as right-wing extremist, has been ruled out as a coalition partner for all other parties.
