Germany Forecasts: Social Democrats win Hamburg election
Mayor Peter Tschentscher's Social Democrats (SPD) have clearly won the regional elections in the northern German state of Hamburg despite losses, according to forecasts by ARD and ZDF.
02.03.2025, 18:30
SDA
According to ZDF's 6 p.m. figures, there is a close race for second place between the Greens and the Christian Democrats (CDU), while ARD puts the Christian Democrats two percentage points ahead of the Greens. They are followed by the Left Party and the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The liberal FDP and the left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which ran for the first time at state level in Hamburg, are unlikely to make it into parliament.
According to forecasts, the SPD will slip to 33.5 to 34.5 percent (2020: 39.2 percent). The Greens, with their lead candidate and second mayor Katharina Fegebank, will achieve between 17.5 and 20 percent, also losing ground on their record result from 2020 (24.2 percent).
The CDU led by top candidate Dennis Thering, on the other hand, made significant gains after its historic low five years ago (11.2 percent) and is now at 19.5 to 20 percent.
The Left Party increased to 11.5 percent (2020: 9.1 percent). The AfD improved to between 7% and 8.5% (2020: 5.3%), but is therefore not even half as strong in Hamburg as at national level.
The FDP again failed to reach the five percent hurdle. According to ARD, it achieved 2.3% (2020: 4.97%). The BSW also failed to make it into parliament with 2.1% - ZDF did not report both parties separately in its forecast. Both channels put the European party Volt at 3% and therefore also not in parliament (2020: 1.3%).
Around 1.3 million eligible voters were called upon to decide on the composition of the regional parliament - the Bürgerschaft - and thus the political balance of power in Germany's second largest city after Berlin. All citizens aged 16 and over were eligible to vote.
Hamburg is considered a social democratic stronghold. In the 76 years since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany, the SPD, which is considered to be business-friendly there, has been the city's leader for more than 60 years.
In last Sunday's federal election, the SPD plummeted from 25.7% to 16.4% and is now only the third strongest party behind the Christian Democrats and the AfD. It was by far the worst result for Germany's oldest party in a federal election.
