Fall of the government in Paris France urgently needs to solve these problems now

Stefan Michel

5.12.2024

Michel Barnier's days as prime minister are numbered. Emanuel Macron wants to hold on until the end of his term of office in 2027.
Michel Barnier's days as prime minister are numbered. Emanuel Macron wants to hold on until the end of his term of office in 2027.
KEYSTONE

The French parliament has toppled the government with a vote of no confidence. What happens now in Switzerland's western neighbor? The most important answers to the Paris government crisis.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • France's government has failed after a successful vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier: President Macron must appoint a new government.
  • Political uncertainty and high national debt are weighing on the EU's second-largest economy, while the opposition is unable to form a stable majority for a clear course.
  • Together with the coalition collapse in Germany, the EU is missing its two most important drivers, which is severely affecting Europe's stability and ability to act.

What is going on in France?

France is extremely indebted and is under pressure from the eurozone to reduce its budget deficit. Prime Minister Michel Barnier knew that the parliament, in which the government camp is in the minority, would not approve his social budget. He therefore passed the budget for 2025 bypassing parliament on the basis of a rarely used article of law.

This procedure automatically leads to a vote of no confidence. Because the opposition - Marine Le Pen's extreme right-wing Rassemblement National and the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire - are united on this issue and also have a comfortable majority in parliament, the vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening was successful.

This means that the government under Michel Barnier is already history again three months after it was set up.

Will there now be new elections?

Parliamentary elections in France are only possible one year after an election at the earliest. This means that voters will not be able to elect a new government until summer 2025.

Who will govern France now?

The current government will remain in office as caretaker for the time being. In the meantime, Michel Barnier has submitted his resignation. President Emanuel Macron must appoint a new government - but there is no deadline for this.

It is possible that he will allow a transitional government to take office until next summer. He can then call new elections. At the moment, this primarily means uncertainty about the direction in which the EU's second-largest economy will develop.

The euro countries and the global markets expect France to reduce its national debt, which will be difficult with a transitional government, possibly again without a majority in parliament.

Will President Macron resign?

No one is assuming that. Macron has repeatedly made it clear that he will complete his second term in office. He has announced a speech to the nation for 8 p.m. today, Thursday. He is likely to announce his next steps there.

Nevertheless, the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire is calling for Macron's resignation. Marine Le Pen has stated on record that she is not calling on the President to resign. He would have to sort that out for himself.

Who benefits from the government crisis?

Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National and the Nouveau Front Populaire, which is made up of several left-wing parties, have proven that Macron and his prime minister cannot govern against them. However, it is unlikely that they will agree on a budget or even a government course. Their positions are too far apart.

It is therefore easier to say who is harmed by the current situation: besides the current government, it is President Emanuel Macron. He made the current situation possible in the first place with his early elections. He is therefore at least partly responsible for the government crisis.

Ultimately, the French population is also not benefiting from this period of uncertainty. The most pressing problems are even more difficult to solve and interest rates on the debt are rising even higher.

How will France arrive at a budget for 2025?

Two of the three largest power blocs would have to join forces for a budget to be passed by parliament. Alongside the Rassemblement National and the Nouveau Front Populaire, this is the Ensemble movement, which backs President Macron.

On 20 December, the government can adopt a budget for 2025 by decree - provided that parliament has not agreed on a budget plan by then.

It is also conceivable that the 2024 budget will be extended to 2025. However, this would only be a provisional measure, explains political scientist François-Xavier Millet on Euronews.

Unlike the USA, however, France is not threatened with a shutdown, i.e. no reduction of public administration to the strict minimum necessary.

Germany no longer has a government either - what does this mean for Europe?

France and Germany are the two largest economies in Europe without a government. Traditionally, the two countries have been the driving and stabilizing forces of the EU.

Commentators are already voicing concern that Italy has taken on the role of the pole of calm instead. The Meloni government has already been in office for two years - a duration that the majority of Italian governments in the post-war period have not achieved.

Of course, Italy cannot replace the two heavyweights. The ARD "Tagesschau" also recalls the Greek debt crisis, which at the time was also a test for the eurozone. Compared to France's debt today, Greece's debt in 2010 was a child's birthday party, according to ARD. Nevertheless, the experts do not believe that the euro is in danger because of the situation in France.

It is also clear that France and Germany will be mainly preoccupied with themselves in the coming weeks, perhaps even months, and will set fewer priorities in terms of foreign policy and within the EU.

With material from Euronews, NZZ, ARD, ZDF, Deutschlandfunk, NTV, Focus