Iran From Assad to Ankara: positions in the Syrian war
After years without any major fighting in the Syrian civil war, the conflict has flared up again in the course of a week. An alliance of actually rival rebels has taken over large areas in the north-west surprisingly quickly, including Syria's second largest and symbolic city of Aleppo.
05.12.2024, 15:07
SDA
The rebels have now advanced into the southern city of Hama. The Syrian Ministry of Defense announced that government troops had been deployed outside the city in order to "protect the lives of civilians" in Hama.
The conflict in Syria began in 2011 with protests against the government of head of state Bashar al-Assad. Security forces used violence against them. Everything led to a civil war with international involvement, in which Russia, Iran, Turkey and the USA are pursuing their own interests. Around 14 million people have been displaced. According to UN estimates, more than 300,000 civilians have died so far. A political solution has not been in sight for years.
Ruler Assad significantly weakened
The rebels' surprisingly rapid offensive has exposed "embarrassing weaknesses in the Assad regime's defense", writes Hamidreza Azizi from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in the magazine "Foreign Policy". The rebel alliance has clearly gained in importance, Assad and his regime are deeply weakened, writes Syria expert Charles Lister.
Assad's military influence has so far been based primarily on the support of his allies. With the help of the Russian air force, fighters from the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Assad has recently regained control of two thirds of the divided country. Whether he can hold on to power in the long term will also depend on the behavior of Moscow and Tehran.
Assad's most important supporters are preoccupied with their own problems: Russia with the war in Ukraine, Hezbollah and its supporter Iran with hard setbacks in the war against Israel. Almost the entire Hezbollah leadership and a large number of its fighters have been killed.
HTS plans to overthrow Assad
The Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls the north-west and is leading the offensive, is planning to overthrow Assad. By capturing Aleppo, a city with over a million inhabitants, the rebels have gained control of the country's economic center.
HTS succeeded a former offshoot of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda in Syria, but has distanced itself from this organization as well as from the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS). The group is now considered somewhat more moderate than IS or the Afghan Taliban. It has also declared that it wants to respect minorities and other religions.
Nevertheless, it is essentially an authoritarian armed group that has been accused of torture, other forms of violence and the expulsion of minorities in recent years. The USA, the EU and the United Nations, among others, classify HTS as a terrorist organization.
Turkey could end up benefiting
Turkey denies having anything to do with the offensive. However, observers in the country assume that Ankara has at least approved the advance - and will ultimately benefit from it. Turkey is supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) in the civil war and is occupying border areas in the north with its support. According to military expert Erdogan Karakus, the Islamist HTS is coordinating with the SNA rebels. In addition, Turkey regularly delivers aid to Idlib and certainly has an influence on events.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing two main goals in Syria: Firstly, he is aiming for at least some of the refugees in his country to return to Syria. Secondly, he wants to weaken the influence of Kurdish militias on the border. He is planning a so-called "security corridor" there in order to settle refugees and push back the Kurdish militias.
Turkey is probably not interested in a "dramatic escalation", Heiko Wimmen from the think tank International Crisis Group told dpa. "Ankara may not be unhappy if the rebels improve their position. This brings advantages if they want to negotiate "normalization" with Assad. However, an expansion of the conflict, which in the end also brings Russia back into the picture, seems rather counterproductive."
Neighbor Israel views developments with mixed feelings
Analysts at the Institute for National Security (INSS) think tank in Tel Aviv write that, from an Israeli perspective, the developments in Syria have both positive and negative aspects. On the one hand, Assad's side has been hit hard and his fall would be a significant blow for Iran and its accomplices and for Russia. "Iran would have to withdraw its troops from Syria, while the direct route for a military reconstruction of Hezbollah would be blocked by arms smuggling from Iran and Syria to Lebanon," the analysts said.
On the other hand, a period of chaos and instability in the region would threaten after the fall of Assad. Of particular concern is the possibility "that jihadist groups - even if they are somewhat more moderate - could take control of large parts of Syria as well as a potentially large arsenal of weapons, including chemical weapons, and thus pose a serious threat to Israel". The question therefore arises as to whether "the devil we know" (Assad) is preferable or not.
Iran wants to consider sending troops
A change of power in Syria or even the fall of Assad would have serious consequences for the Iranian leadership. The alliance with Syria as a "corridor" to the Mediterranean has so far been central to the Islamic Republic's ability to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and strengthen its regional influence. Syria - like other militant groups - is considered part of the so-called resistance axis in the fight against Israel.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that he would examine possible troop deployments if the Syrian government so requested. Iran has already sent a notorious commander to the civil war country. The delegation, led by General Jawad Ghafari, an expert on Syria, is to support the government forces' counter-offensive. Ghafari became known as the "Butcher of Aleppo" due to his role in the recapture of Aleppo in 2016, as reported by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Possible postponement after Donald Trump takes office
The further course of events is also likely to depend on the new US administration under Donald Trump, who will be sworn in on January 20, 2025. Trump ordered airstrikes in Syria during his first term of office. He could also enforce a hard line against Iran and its ally Assad in the new year.
