The economy Greenland crisis causes pessimism among analysts
An indicator for the Swiss economy fell into negative territory in January. The Greenland crisis was probably to blame.
28.01.2026, 10:47
SDA
The so-called UBS CFA indicator fell to -4.7 points in January from +6.0 points in December, as the major bank UBS announced on Wednesday. It compiles the indicator, which is based on a survey of experts, together with the CFA Society Switzerland every month.
Last year, the index was at times very negative due to Donald Trump's policies, but then changed sign after the tariff agreement in November.
Trump is now also likely to be responsible for the recent fall into negative territory, UBS explained. This is because the survey was conducted during the escalation of tensions over Greenland and the associated risk of higher US tariffs on some European countries. These discussions had probably weighed on analysts' sentiment.
The index level results from the balance of analysts who expect a positive (18.6%) or negative (23.3%) change in the economic situation. The majority of the 42 respondents expected the situation to remain unchanged.
Key interest rate expected to remain at 0 percent
The experts were also asked about their specific GDP forecasts. On average, growth of 1.1 percent is expected for the current year, followed by 1.3 percent in 2027. "At this level, economic growth would remain below its long-term average," commented UBS.
Almost 90 percent of survey participants also expected inflation to remain between 0 and 1 percent in 2026 and anticipated a slight increase to an average of 0.4 percent after 0.2 percent last year. Three out of four analysts therefore also expected the Swiss National Bank to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 0 percent in 2026, according to the communiqué.
The survey was conducted between January 15 and 21.
