International Fears of military escalation in the Middle East grow
With their latest threats, Israel and Iran are stoking fears that a major war could soon break out in the Middle East - with consequences far beyond the region. The seven major Western industrialized nations (G7) are urging de-escalation, but the fronts between the hostile leaderships in Tehran and Jerusalem appear to have hardened. In view of an announced Iranian retaliatory attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with his military and intelligence chiefs. The Israeli television station Channel 12 reported that "no definitive picture" of the expected attacks has emerged so far. According to other reports, Iran could possibly strike as early as Monday.
05.08.2024, 05:20
05.08.2024, 05:21
SDA
The deadly attacks on two high-ranking targets of the Israeli security apparatus in the previous week triggered the most dangerous crisis in the Middle East region for decades. On Wednesday night, an explosion in the room of an Iranian government guest house in Tehran killed the foreign head of the Islamist Hamas, Ismail Haniya. A few hours earlier, an airstrike had killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
Israel claimed responsibility for the attack on Shukr, but there have been no official statements of this kind from Jerusalem on the attack on Haniya. Iran and its ally Hamas hold the Jewish state responsible in both cases.
The leadership in Tehran and the Shia militia Hezbollah, which it supports, have threatened Israel with massive retaliation for the attacks. Netanyahu's government warned of serious consequences in this case. A regional conflagration is feared if - as announced by Tehran - the militias allied with Iran in the region also take part. In addition to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, these include the Houthi in Yemen as well as militias in Iraq and Syria.
Diplomats in Tehran - G7 consultations via video
According to a newspaper report, Arab diplomats are said to have made representations to Tehran and advocated the most moderate possible response to the attacks. However, the Iranian leadership told the emissaries that it did not care whether the planned retaliatory strike triggered a war, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the content of the talks.
Iran's President Massud Peseshkian received Jordanian Foreign Minister Aiman al-Safadi and told him in connection with the killing of Haniya: "This cowardly act was a violation of all international laws and a major mistake by the Zionists (Israel) that will not go unanswered." Although his government wants peace and stability in the region, the prerequisite for this is "an end to Israeli crimes, especially in Gaza", Peseshkian was quoted as saying by the presidential office.
In a joint video conference, the G7 foreign ministers called on all parties to the conflict to exercise the greatest possible restraint in order to prevent further escalation. Dialogue and moderation are needed in the current situation, said Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His country is currently chairing the G7 and organized the conference of the group, of which Germany is also a member, which was convened at short notice.
When will Iran attack?
It remains unclear when the threatened retaliatory strike could take place. Tehran's and Hezbollah's statements repeatedly referred to the "next few days". The news portal "Axios" reported, with reference to the assessments of three American and Israeli government officials, that Iran could attack as early as Monday. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said this to his colleagues in the G7 video call and spoke of the next 24 to 48 hours as the time frame.
Israel can count on the support of the USA and probably also other allies when it comes to intercepting missiles, cruise missiles and drones from Iran and its proxy groups with modern defense systems. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant on the phone on Sunday (local time) and assured him of "ironclad support" for self-defence, as the Pentagon subsequently announced. They also discussed troop deployments as a security measure. Austin also advocated a ceasefire in the Gaza war and an agreement to release the hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip, according to Washington.
Israeli citizens should remain vigilant
Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Sunday evening that the Israeli civilian population should remain vigilant. "The defense is not hermetic," he emphasized. The situation remains unchanged, but if necessary, shelters must be sought quickly and all instructions followed.
On Monday night, the Israeli military reported a night-time attack from Lebanon involving several suspicious aerial objects, but it did not appear to be a large-scale attack. Air defenses were deployed and one of the objects came down near the kibbutz Ajelet Hashahar, the army announced early in the morning via the Telegram platform. Two soldiers were slightly injured. Air raids in other areas of northern Israel were therefore false alarms - not uncommon these days.
Prime Minister Netanyahu maintained his harsh rhetoric on Sunday evening. "Iran and its clients are trying to encircle us with a ring of fire of terrorism," he said at a memorial event for the right-wing Zionist leader Zeev Jabotinsky (1880-1940). "We are ready to confront them on any front - near or far. Whoever tries to harm us will pay a high price."
The latest escalation is a consequence of the war that Israel has been waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for almost ten months. This in turn was triggered by the unprecedented massacre carried out by terrorists from Hamas and other groups in southern Israel on October 7 last year. They killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250 as hostages in the Gaza Strip.
Israel set itself the goal of destroying Hamas as a military and political organization. However, countless Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip have also fallen victim to the war, and a large part of the building fabric and infrastructure in the sealed-off coastal area has been destroyed. The longer the war lasts, the more Israel is criticized worldwide.
Stalemate in talks on Gaza ceasefire
Israel's indirect negotiations with Hamas, which are intended to lead to a ceasefire and the release of hostages, have been going round in circles for months. As the two sides are not negotiating directly with each other, the USA, Egypt and Qatar are mediating. Another round of talks between an Israeli delegation and Egyptian negotiators ended at the weekend in Cairo without any results, as reported by Israeli media.
Not only critics, but increasingly also Israel's ally, the USA, hold Prime Minister Netanyahu responsible for the deadlock in the talks. He is accused of making an agreement impossible by repeatedly raising new demands.
