Greens ahead of the CDU Historic election in Baden-Württemberg becomes a slap in the face for Chancellor Merz

According to projections, the Greens are ahead in the state elections in Baden-Württemberg. Top candidate Cem Özdemir could thus make history as only the second Green head of government in Germany.

The Greens are on the verge of a political sensation in the state elections in the German federal state of Baden-Württemberg. According to ARD projections, the party of top candidate Cem Özdemir has achieved around 31.8 percent of the vote, putting it ahead of the CDU with around 29.6 percent.

If this result is confirmed, Özdemir could become head of government. He would be only the second prime minister of the Greens in Germany after Winfried Kretschmann.

At the beginning of the election campaign, a CDU victory was still considered likely. Baden-Württemberg is traditionally considered a conservative state. However, the Greens apparently managed to catch up in the final spurt.

Özdemir was satisfied on election night, but remained cautious. "What an election campaign, what a brilliant race to catch up," he said. At the same time, he emphasized: "It is still too early to say anything definitive."

Setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz

The result is also a setback for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The CDU had hoped that an election victory would provide a tailwind for its federal political agenda.

During the election campaign, Merz had already described CDU candidate Manuel Hagel as a future prime minister. According to observers, however, debates on topics such as "lifestyle part-time work" or a possible privatization of dental insurance damaged the CDU's election campaign.

In addition, the Chancellor's personal popularity is currently low. According to a survey by the Ipsos Institute, only nine percent of Germans are "very satisfied" with his work, while 56 percent are "very dissatisfied".

AfD gains significant votes

The AfD has also made significant gains. According to projections, the party achieved around 17.7 percent. In the last state election in 2021, it had achieved 9.7 percent.

The party benefited from the economic uncertainty in the region, among other things. News of job cuts at large companies such as Porsche, Bosch and Mercedes-Benz played into its hands.

Despite its strong result, however, participation in government remains out of the question. Both the CDU and the Greens have categorically ruled out cooperation with the AfD.

SPD collapses - FDP fights for political survival

A historically weak result is on the horizon for the SPD. According to projections, it only has 5.5 percent. At the last election, it still had around 11 percent.

The FDP is also facing a crash. The Liberals, who achieved 10.5 percent in 2021, are currently at around 4.4 percent and could therefore fail to reach the five percent hurdle.

The Left Party is also at around 4.4% and is therefore also likely to narrowly miss out on entering the state parliament.

New debate among the Greens

The election result could also have consequences within the party. Cem Özdemir is considered a representative of the pragmatic realist wing of the Greens. During the election campaign, he advocated pro-business positions and a more restrictive migration policy.

This course differs to some extent from the federal party, which focuses more on social issues and redistribution.

Should Özdemir actually become head of government, this could reorganize the balance of power within the Greens and strengthen the pragmatic wing of the party.