International How bitter will Trump's Vice President's Munich speech be for Europe?
It is by far the most important appearance at this Munich Security Conference: US President Donald Trump's deputy will only be on the main stage at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof for 30 minutes this afternoon (2.30 pm). But it will be a tough one.
14.02.2025, 01:17
SDA
Vice President J.D. Vance has come to Munich to explain the foreign and security policy course of the new US administration to the European allies. He is likely to have some bitter truths at the ready.
Ukraine war: "Dirty deal" with Putin?
Trump has already brought the mood between the USA and Europe to a low point before the conference. First, he snubbed the EU by announcing punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum. Then he brought some of his allies to the barricades with his sensational phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and an uncoordinated negotiation offer. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas called it a "dirty deal" and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) warned against a "dictated peace".
This is unlikely to persuade Vance to give in in any way. The question is, however, whether he will further formulate the already known US ideas of a peace solution and to what extent he will take the Europeans to task - for example in securing a ceasefire with a peacekeeping force. Selenskyj was expected in Munich that night - a few hours after Vance's arrival. The two have arranged to meet on Friday.
Trump's puzzling announcement: Is Russia coming to Munich?
But there could also be a really big surprise. There will be a meeting in Munich with "high-ranking representatives from Russia, Ukraine and the United States", Trump announced on Thursday, without giving any details. However, Russia has not yet been invited to the Security Conference (MSC). Trump's announcement therefore remains a mystery for the time being. There was initially no statement from the MSC.
In addition to the war in Ukraine, there are a whole range of other topics that could make Europeans cringe during Vance's speech.
Troop withdrawal from Europe: tens of thousands of soldiers less?
There is speculation that he could announce a withdrawal of American troops from Europe. In response to Russia's actions against Ukraine, Trump's previous administration under President Joe Biden sent more than 20,000 additional soldiers across the Atlantic, increasing the number of US troops in Europe to more than 100,000.
Within NATO, it is expected that Trump will reduce the number to pre-war levels relatively quickly - if not significantly more. It is likely, for example, that soldiers from the 82nd US Airborne Division, who were last deployed in particular to deter and secure Nato's eastern flank, will return home.
Defense spending: Showdown in June?
Trump has recently called several times for every European ally to spend five percent of its economic output on defense in the future. So far, however, he has not said when he expects to start spending this amount. There could be more clarity at the Munich Security Conference - also with regard to when a new NATO target for defense spending is to be agreed. It is likely that Trump wants a decision at the NATO summit in June at the latest.
Punitive tariffs: what about German cars?
Are the feared special tariffs on car imports and numerous other goods coming? Or will the extra duties on steel and aluminum products that have already been announced remain in place for the time being? This is another question that is on the minds of Europeans these days.
Trump's trade policy was already a major topic at the security conference during his first term in office. In Munich in 2019, then Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the US government's plans to classify European vehicles as a threat to US national security and thus create the basis for tariffs. At the same time, she ultimately successfully campaigned for negotiations to avoid a trade war.
G7: Is Putin coming back to a G8?
In 2014, Russia was banned from the group of leading Western economies (G8) following the annexation of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea - the group became the G7 again. Trump is now in favor of meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin again. Is he having his deputy campaign for a return to the G8 format?
Vance meets Merz - Scholz arrives later
Vance will also have a number of interlocutors from the German side in Munich. Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz (CDU) was the first to announce that he will meet with the American. It is expected that Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and Head of the Chancellery Wolfgang Schmidt (SPD) will also meet with the US Vice President. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), on the other hand, is not expected in Munich until Saturday - when Vance has already left.
