How Trump misunderstands Putin - and why this could become a problem for the Kremlin

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• Despite Donald Trump's claims to the contrary, Vladimir Putin has no interest in Western troops being stationed in Ukraine to secure a possible peace.
• Addressing the "root causes" of the war: According to one expert, by this Putin means that the West is staying out of Eastern Europe.
• The fact that Trump is still talking about the issue could end up putting Putin in a bind after all.
• Germany, Poland, Italy, Sweden, France and the UK are discussing possible peacekeeping forces.

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It was "strange" to watch the Alaska summit and the subsequent Ukraine meeting in the White House, says Anders Puck Nielsen. With regard to the war aims, the Danish military expert states: "It's pretty clear that neither side has significantly changed its position."

Donald Trump seems to believe that there has been progress and that Kiev and Moscow are on course to reach a compromise: Nielsen wonders whether this is a tactic by the president, whether he doesn't understand the situation or is just pretending to.

This can be seen in the discussion about the security guarantees for Ukraine: Trump has claimed that Vladimir Putin has given the green light for this. "The reality is that Putin didn't say that," corrects the veteran. The Russian may have agreed to something that sounds similar - for example "security assurances".

"Western countries must leave Eastern Europe to Russia"

Putin "never accepted" that NATO soldiers would be stationed in Ukraine. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow has also emphasized this. "But this has all been overshadowed by the fact that Trump continues to talk about it."

All just a misunderstanding? Vladimir Putin (left) and Donald Trump (center) in conversation on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska.

Image: Keystone

Putin's statements that the "root causes" of the conflict had to be addressed before the war could be ended showed that the Kremlin could not agree with this. The 72-year-old is referring to the "Western presence in Eastern Europe", Nielsen is certain "What he really means is that Western countries must leave Eastern Europe to Russia." The question is how far this should go. In any case, Ukraine is in Moscow's sphere of influence.

According to the 45-year-old, the Russian and American presidents are communicating at cross purposes. This is why Trump is suddenly claiming that Putin agrees to security guarantees and wants to meet with Zelensky. "Both points are extremely unlikely," believes the Dane.

Trump "is putting pressure on Putin"

If the Kremlin leader were to meet the Ukrainian president, it would put Volodymyr Zelensky on an equal footing with Putin, which Moscow would never accept. However, the fact that Trump is pushing ahead in this way could become a problem for Russia: "It could be very difficult to reverse these statements [by Trump] or to correct them afterwards."

The discussion about the security guarantees, which was unwanted by the Kremlin, and the public attention to the issue would make it more difficult for Moscow to pull itself out of the affair. "What has happened is actually significant, because it puts pressure on Putin to deliver on these things," says Nielsen.

At the same time, Europe is now discussing who could deploy how many troops to keep the peace. This results in a very diversified situation. Here is an overview.

In Germany, there is a debate about whether the Bundeswehr should be involved in peacekeeping. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) said in Washington that the question of who would participate in security guarantees and to what extent would have to be discussed between the European partners and the US government.

The Bundeswehr at the Grand Quadriga maneuver near Vilnius in May 2024: Because Germany has a 5,000-strong force stationed in Lithuania, the army is relatively busy.

Picture: Keystone

Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, on the other hand, has expressed caution regarding the possible deployment of German soldiers. Nothing has yet been agreed with other European states in connection with the possible deployment of troops as a security guarantee for a peace solution, Wadephul said in response to a question on the subject during a visit to Tokyo.

He continued: "We are at the beginning of a difficult process." In the "Table.Today" podcast, Wadephul said that sending German soldiers to Ukraine would "probably also overburden Germany". This was a "remote question", the minister said, putting the uncomfortable topic on the back burner.

Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz rejects the deployment of Polish troops. "We will not send Polish soldiers to Ukraine. That has been the government's position not just for a week, but for many months," the 44-year-old is quoted as saying.

Warsaw is already securing the eastern flank of NATO with 5,000 to 6,000 military personnel, has taken in a million refugees and supplied hundreds of tanks, jets and other weapons to Kiev. British and French troops, who "have taken over the organization of the philosophy of the coalition of the willing, clearly understand Poland's role", said the minister.

Giorgia Meloni spoke to Bloomberg about the case - and brought a third option into play: if Russia were to attack Ukraine again after a peace agreement, Kiev's allies should decide within 24 hours whether to help.

However, this help would not necessarily have to be of a military nature: In addition to defense aid, economic support for Kiev or sanctions against Moscow are also conceivable.

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of two security guarantees to keep the peace in Ukraine: In addition to a strong Ukrainian army, there should be reassurance troops on land, at sea and in the air.

Paris and London would lead the way in this case: Macron already discussed a deployment of peacekeeping troops from France and the UK back in March. Keir Starmer put the issue on the agenda in April. Now the prime minister is ready to follow up his words with action, writes the Independent.

Sweden is prepared to secure a possible peace through air surveillance and from the sea. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said this to the radio station "Sveriges Radio".

It is not about deploying large forces from other countries to Ukraine, but rather about ensuring "that Ukraine itself can credibly take responsibility for its country so that Russia does not try again", said Kristersson.

However, Sweden's contribution in the event of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must be done in a safe manner so that they know "what they are getting into", said Kristersson. Sweden joined NATO in March 2024, making it the newest member of the alliance.

With agency material.

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